We're Just Days Away From a Huge Piece of News for the 2027 Social Security COLA

The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) estimates are about to get a little more concrete. We're just days away from receiving the first of three critical numbers necessary for the calculation. It won't tell you exactly what to expect from your checks next year, but it'll give you a rough idea to help you start fleshing out your 2027 budget.

Here's a closer look at what's coming, when to expect it, and how to use this information to prepare for next year.

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The first of three essential 2026 numbers arrives on Aug. 12

The Social Security Administration bases its COLAs on changes in third-quarter inflation from one year to the next, and it measures this using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). We already have the numbers for July, August, and September 2025, but we're still missing the 2026 numbers.

We'll get the first of these on Aug. 12. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the CPI-W figure for July at 8:30 am ET, and from there, COLA estimates should become a bit more accurate. But we'll still have to wait until the September CPI-W figure comes in on Oct. 14 for the actual COLA announcement.

Current estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, put the 2027 COLA around 3.8%. This is a whole percentage point higher than the 2026 COLA, though this number could still move slightly up or down over the coming months.

What this means for your checks

A 3.8% Social Security COLA would add roughly $79 to the $2,084 average monthly retirement benefit as of June 2026. But you could get more or less than this. If you want a ballpark of how much more you'll get next year, add 3.8% to your existing checks. You can repeat this process on Aug. 12 if the next COLA estimate, which usually comes out on the same day the government releases the inflation data, is higher or lower than current predictions.

Once the COLA is locked in on Oct. 14, you'll be able to seriously start thinking about how you'll budget for your costs in 2027. Use those last few weeks of the year to estimate how much of your monthly expenses Social Security will cover and start planning how you'll cover the rest.

Keep in mind that your Medicare Part B premiums will likely increase next year, too, which could eat up some of your COLA gains. The Social Security Administration will send you a personalized COLA notice in December explaining how much you'll receive after Part B premiums, so remember to check that and adjust your budget as needed.

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