Best Quantum Computing Pick-and-Shovel Play: Nvidia, Microsoft, or Alphabet?

Folksy wisdom holds that the surest way to make money during a gold rush was to sell shovels rather than swing picks. As with many emerging industries, quantum computing could be reviving that old dynamic, at least for a while, and it's no surprise why.

In particular, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) -- none of which earn a meaningful sum from quantum yet -- could prove to be the best upstream providers to the quantum computing industry. The whole industry could be worth as much as $4.4 billion by 2028, according to research by McKinsey, up from being worth $1 billion today.

Which of these three businesses is best positioned to capture a slice of that growth, not to mention whatever happens in the long run?

Image source: Getty Images.

Nvidia is already selling shovels to everyone

Nvidia doesn't build a quantum chip, and it might not ever.

Its CUDA-Q software runs on most public quantum processors, splitting each job between graphics processing units (GPUs) and the qubit hardware. In October 2025, it launched NVQLink, an interconnecting layer wiring those processors to its own GPUs, and 17 quantum builders and nine national labs were using its solution within weeks.

Another underlying theme here is that any fault-tolerant quantum computer will need plenty of classical computing power besides qubits to decode errors, and Nvidia sells that regardless of the qubit type being used.

The big catch is that, at least today, the company's quantum computing revenue is so small that it's undetectable compared to the revenue from the rest of its data center business, which cleared $194 billion last fiscal year.

So if it's going to realize significant upside from its sales related to quantum computing specifically, that'll likely only happen if its strategy changes or if the market, over the long run, grows to be worth more than 10 times what it's expected to be worth in the next few years.

Microsoft has a marketplace and a moonshot

Microsoft's participation in quantum computing is arguably more direct than Nvidia's -- it's developing its own quantum chip. However, its reach is narrower, since its Azure Quantum runs on a handful of partner platforms rather than sitting under most of the world's quantum processing units (QPUs).

The Azure Quantum service rents out cloud access to hardware from pure players like Quantinuum, IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and others, taking a toll per job run on its platform. That's an attractive business model because it lets other people handle the costs of developing the hardware and the costs of using it. It also means that Microsoft is an important upstream supplier for multiple types of businesses in the space. As the industry grows, that'll position the company to be a key player, not to mention bringing in some additional revenue.

The moonshot is that it has its own chip in development. In June 2026, it unveiled Majorana 2, a topological chip that it claims is 1,000 times more reliable than the prior version, with an even better scalable version targeted for 2029. If those plans work out, it'll be a quantum powerhouse.

Alphabet is betting on itself

Google's Quantum AI builds its own superconducting quantum chips.

Its 105-qubit Willow processor showed exponential error reduction in December 2024, and a computational advantage over classical computers for some computations in October 2025. It also experimented with a neutral-atom modality in March 2026. The research group responsible for those computers is also publishing a significant number of academic articles that are influencing the conversation and raising its stature in the industry.

The most plausible route to the company growing its quantum revenue runs through Google Cloud, which could eventually sell access to Willow the way Azure Quantum resells partner hardware. This is a playbook Alphabet is already applying in an adjacent domain, having begun shipping its custom Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) chips to a select group of outside customers to install in their own data centers.

Which is best?

Of these companies, Nvidia has the most direct exposure and is therefore the best pick-and-shovel play for quantum computing stocks. Its revenue is indifferent to which qubit type becomes mainstream, and it's already creating the capabilities it'll need to serve the market with real knowledge about what customers need.

Microsoft is a close second, as its marketplace format is both low-risk and high-gain, under the right future conditions.

Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, IonQ, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.