This Industrial Stock Is Up 533% in 2 Years. I Predict It Will Join the Dow if Caterpillar Issues a Stock Split.

International Business Machines had its worst day in its history on July 14. So you may think that the blue chip dividend stock would drag down the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but that didn't happen. IBM has only a 2.3% weighting in the Dow, so its losses were more than offset by fellow Dow component Goldman Sachs, which has a 12.4% weighting and gained 9% that day.

This is just one of many examples when a Dow heavyweight has carried drastic underperformance from lower-weighted components. Ten of the Dow's 30 components are down year to date, but the Dow is up nearly 8% thanks to the overperformance of its top three heaviest weighted components. Goldman Sachs has the top weighting in the Dow and is up 23%, followed by Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), which has a 10.3% weighting and is up 56%; and UnitedHealth Group, which has a 4.9% weighting and is up 30% on the year.

The price-weighted Dow index can become unbalanced if a handful of stocks surge in price without issuing stock splits. Goldman Sachs is up 190% in the last five years, and Caterpillar has done even better, jumping 330%. Combined, these two stocks make up over 22% of the Dow.

Right now, the industrials sector has the second-highest overall weighting in the Dow, representing 19% of the index. I believe there's an industrial stock that would be an ideal component to join the Dow, but it would need Caterpillar to issue a stock split first to balance the index's industrial sector weighting. That stock is GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) -- let's see if it's a good buy now.

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A Caterpillar split could open the door for GE Vernova

GE Vernova has some history in the Dow. It was created by the 2023 split of General Electric, which was divided into GE Vernova, GE Healthcare Technologies, and GE Aerospace. GE was one of the original members of the Dow when it was founded in 1896, but was removed in 2018.

The three independent companies have collectively produced incredible gains for investors who held the original stock. GE Vernova is up a mind-numbing 700% since its spinoff and 533% in the last two years. The rapid rise has pole-vaulted its market cap to $282 billion -- making it the third most valuable U.S. industrial company behind Caterpillar and GE Aerospace.

But Caterpillar would likely need to split its stock to make room for GE Vernova so the industrial sector isn't overweighted in the index. Caterpillar has issued stock splits in the past; its most recent split came in 2005.

And which company would be removed from the index to make room for GE Vernova? A very logical seat change could be dropping Nike, given that the athletic wear company is hovering near a 12-year low and its turnaround is taking far longer than expected. Nike has the smallest weighting in the Dow, making up only 0.48% of the index.

GE Vernova is a candidate to split its stock as well

At just over $1,000 per share at the time of this writing, GE Vernova would need to issue a stock split of its own before being added to the Dow.

If Caterpillar issued a stock split and GE Vernova replaced Nike at its current price, the Dow's industrial sector weighting would increase even more, and GE Vernova would instantly become one of the most heavily weighted components alongside Goldman Sachs. The Dow typically adds stocks only if they are priced closer to the index's median weighting or have recently split their own shares, to avoid tilting the index's balance.

For example, Alphabet issued a 20-for-1 stock split in 2022 and was added to the Dow in June of this year. If GE Vernova issued a 4-for-1 split, it would be priced right around the median of the Dow components.

This hypergrowth industrial stock deserves a seat in the Dow

Given its industry-leading role in supplying industrial machinery, such as heavy-duty gas turbines, for AI data centers, GE Vernova stands out as a logical choice for adding another industrial component to the Dow.

Despite its massive run-up in recent years, GE Vernova fetches a surprisingly reasonable 30.8 price-to-earnings ratio because its earnings growth has kept up with its stock price appreciation. However, analyst consensus estimates have GE Vernova earning $30.64 in 2026 earnings per share (EPS) but just $24.48 in 2027 EPS.

Investors who believe we are still in the early innings of the AI infrastructure build-out may still want to buy GE Vernova, but it's worth noting that cyclical stocks can look cheap when their trailing earnings are in an expansion cycle, and then far more expensive as earnings compress during downturns. GE Vernova could pull back just as quickly as it ran up if there's a spending slowdown, making the stock ideally suited for risk-tolerant investors willing to endure volatility.

Daniel Foelber has positions in Nike. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Caterpillar, GE Aerospace, GE HealthCare Technologies, GE Vernova, Goldman Sachs Group, International Business Machines, and Nike. The Motley Fool recommends UnitedHealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.