AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock Forecast 2026: $500M Army Contract After a 133% Revenue Beat - Can It Reach $260?

TradingKey - Shares of AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV) currently change hands at $190.89, and they have increased about 35% in the last 3-day period due to the two important events. First, AeroVironment on the last trading day of its fiscal Q4 (June 30), reported revenues of $641.6 million (up 133% Y/Y) exceeding its consensus expectations of $556 million to $559 million. Second, AeroVironment has been awarded a $500 million firm-fixed-price contract by the U.S. Army on July 3 for its Titan RF counter unmanned aerial system which will last until June 2029. Adjusted EPS of $1.84 per share surpassed estimates of $1.47 (+25%).

From a technical perspective, the RSI remains in a bullish zone, and with a reading of 60.36, this stock is not deemed overbought yet. The average price target on AeroVironment across Wall Street stands at $258.61. Investors are currently focused on the company's upcoming Investor Day on July 8 in New York where management will likely discuss business strategy and provide a fiscal 2027 outlook.

Q4 Blowout as Revenue Surges 133%; Plus Orders Outpace Sales

AeroVironment has released its best-ever fiscal fourth quarter and that also with a revenue of $641.6 million. It’s nearly 15% above consensus Wall Street forecasts. That represented a 133% year-over-year growth, supported by 31% organic business and by BlueHalo and Empirical Systems Aerospace acquisitions.

Its autonomous systems business, Switchblade, Puma and Raven drones, as well as counter-UAV offerings, brought in $492.4 million, representing 77% of AeroVironment sales. CEO Wahid Nawabi described fiscal 2026 as a transformational year for the company as the autonomous drone maker becomes a “stronger and more diversified business” after successfully integrating its acquisitions.

Another strong sign? The drone company posted a 1.4 book-to-bill ratio for fiscal 2026, a measure indicating the company booked $1.40 in orders for every $1 of revenue recognized. AeroVironment booked $2.7 billion in orders this fiscal year, and its funded backlog jumped 65% to $1.2 billion.

Although it registered a net loss on a GAAP basis, it was driven primarily by non-cash acquisition-related charges related to the BlueHalo and Empirical businesses. AeroVironment’s 21.8% adjusted EBITDA margin, however, shows better profitability and operating leverage as the company ramps up production to accommodate demand.

The $500M Army Contract and July 8 Investor Day

A new $500 million firm-fixed-price U.S. Army contract for its Titan RF counter-drone solution is the latest catalyst for AeroVironment shares after its earnings rally. Under this contract type, AeroVironment would absorb any cost overruns but also reap the full benefits from any cost savings in production, which could be supportive of the company’s margins as it owns the vertically-integrated Titan RF solution. The agreement covers the company until at least June 2029, as the counter-drone technology has ramped in demand. Jefferies analysts wrote that the new award increases AeroVironment’s revenue visibility through the end of fiscal 2027, and Wedbush continues to see AeroVironment as a key player in autonomous defence.

AeroVironment will host its Investor Day in New York on July 8. During the event, executives are expected to discuss its autonomous defence strategy and how it will integrate BlueHalo and Empirical, in addition to providing an update on its long-term backlog. Investor Day events, especially those taking place following strong results, can sometimes add to the positive sentiment and encourage bullish momentum for shares, though in other instances can spur profit-taking as investors digest the new guidance.

AeroVironment is currently forecast by analysts for $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings per share of $3.02 to $3.34 in fiscal 2027, which implies around 10% revenue growth from fiscal 2026. Some analysts trimmed their price targets over softer adjusted EPS guidance, though most continued to maintain a Buy rating. Shares of the company are currently trading around $190, and its consensus price target remains at $259, which suggests roughly 35% additional upside for its stock.

AVAV Technical Setup; Breakout at $190, Target $261.80

On the daily time-frame, the stock broke out above its declining trendlines, major resistance levels, and above declining volume on massive volume; the uptrend line from lower lows continues to act as technical support. The RSI at 60.36 is showing a neutral-bullish setup, leaving room to the upside before reaching overbought levels, and displays no bearish divergence, suggesting positive momentum remains strong.

AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The stock is set to run toward $220-plus based on its channel, and a sustained close above $217 opens up a path to $261.80. The stop should be set just below $168.90, which would be the first level at which the breakout would be invalidated.

• Buy Point: Above $217.00, as that is a major resistance level to overcome
• Price Target: $261.80, as that's the upper bound of the channel
• Stop Loss: Below $168.90, in case the breakout fails
• Fourth quarter fiscal 2026: $641.6 million in revenue (up 133% year-over-year), adjusted EPS of $1.84 which topped consensus EPS of $1.47; book-to-bill ratio of 1.4x to 1x
• Army Contract: $500M Titan RF anti-UAS, firm-fixed-price through June 2029
• Investor Day: NYC, July 8, 2026

What Is Investor Day on July 8 and Why Does It Matter?

AeroVironment is set to hold its 2026 Investor Day in New York on July 8, where management is expected to share information on its autonomous systems strategy, BlueHalo and Empirical integration efforts, as well as future contracts and revenue prospects. The company will have just reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and announced a $500 million U.S. Army Titan RF contract. 

Thus, investors will want to learn more about its large programs, the activity of its orders, and whether they feel good about the fiscal 2027 revenue guidance ($2.125 billion-$2.225 billion) and adjusted EPS guidance ($3.02-$3.34). The event may also clarify how the firm will turn its large backlog and orders into profit and earnings over time, after management guidance was a bit lower than some expectations.

Bottom Line

AeroVironment is up about 35% in the past three sessions, following better-than-expected earnings for fiscal fourth quarter and the $500 million Titan RF contract award in defense. The company said Q4 revenue was $641.6 million, beating consensus estimates by about 15%. The book-to-bill ratio was 1.4 and it had a funded backlog of $1.2 billion, indicating that its defense business was in healthy demand. 

Although AeroVironment posted a GAAP loss, the company was still profitable from an operational standpoint with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.8%. This was due to non-cash acquisition-related charges.

Wall Street has an average price target of $258.61 on the stock, which would be about a 35% upside from current levels. From a technical perspective, a move above $217 could open the door toward $261.80. Support sits at $168.90. A key event to keep an eye on is the July 8 Investor Day to gauge the firm's fiscal 2027 expectations and long-term growth path.