Bank of Japan: Wage data backs rates hike path – Wells Fargo

Source Fxstreet

Wells Fargo Economics expects Japan’s May labor cash earnings to confirm a sustained wage-price cycle, supporting Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy normalization. The report highlights strong Shuntō wage settlements and resilient Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and projects that the BoJ will raise rates by 25 bps in Q3, likely September, taking the policy rate to 1.25% by year-end.

Wages support BoJ tightening outlook

"With Japan’s labor cash earnings for May due next week, the release will offer a fresh read on whether the wage-price cycle remains intact. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to signal conviction in its path toward policy normalization, as April labor cash earnings and ordinary time earnings (the BoJ's preferred gauge of underlying wage momentum) rose 3.6% and 3.3% year over year, respectively."

"This year's Shuntō negotiations delivered another round of strong pay gains, with labor unions securing average wage increases of more than 5% for a third consecutive year, effective from April. Given the limited coverage of union workers and the lagged pass-through from negotiated settlements to realized earnings, wage growth should remain supported in the months ahead."

"While inflation has been soft, the fading of government subsidies and impact of a weaker yen on import prices should contribute to a gradual pickup in inflation. Combined with resilient GDP growth and a solid Q2 Tankan report, a strong wage print would support the case for further tightening. As such, we continue to expect the BoJ to deliver a 25 bps rate hike in Q3 (most likely September), bringing the policy rate to a terminal level of 1.25% by year-end."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: US Non-Farm Payrolls Miss Expectations, Gold Surges Over $100, Can the Bull Run Continue?As of the Asian session on July 3, gold prices ( XAUUSD) extended yesterday's rally, climbing to an intraday high of $4,195.52. Looking at the charts, gold has gained over $100 in total s
Author  TradingKey
5 hours ago
As of the Asian session on July 3, gold prices ( XAUUSD) extended yesterday's rally, climbing to an intraday high of $4,195.52. Looking at the charts, gold has gained over $100 in total s
placeholder
Gold gains momentum above $4,100 after weak US NFP data Gold price (XAU/USD) gains traction to around $4,125 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends the rally after weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls ‌(NFP) data reduced expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year.
Author  FXStreet
14 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains traction to around $4,125 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends the rally after weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls ‌(NFP) data reduced expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year.
placeholder
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Trump Says US-Iran Talks Progressing Smoothly, Oil May Fall Below $60 As of the European session on July 2, WTI ( USOIL) crude oil prices fluctuated with a weak bias around $68, extending their prior downward trend. From a technical perspective, against the
Author  TradingKey
Yesterday 10: 09
As of the European session on July 2, WTI ( USOIL) crude oil prices fluctuated with a weak bias around $68, extending their prior downward trend. From a technical perspective, against the
placeholder
Japanese Yen recovers sharply from 40-year low as intervention bets trigger short-coveringThe USD/JPY pair comes under intense selling pressure and plummets to the 161.00 neighborhood heading into the European session on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak to the highest since 1986 set the previous day.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 08: 10
The USD/JPY pair comes under intense selling pressure and plummets to the 161.00 neighborhood heading into the European session on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak to the highest since 1986 set the previous day.
placeholder
Fed Chair Warsh Says Inflation Risks Are Receding, Sending Gold Rebounding by Nearly $100On Wednesday (July 1), Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated at the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, that while recent US inflation expectations and inflation risks h
Author  TradingKey
Yesterday 03: 17
On Wednesday (July 1), Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated at the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, that while recent US inflation expectations and inflation risks h
Related Instrument
goTop
quote