Here's What History Says Comes Next For Dogecoin in July

With Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE), the passage of time is doing real work against holders. The coin is down by 55% over the last 12 months.

July typically makes the picture worse. Here's what history says about its performance during that month.

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Brace for yet another down month

While June is typically the asset's worst month of the year, in which it loses a median of 14.2% of its value, Dogecoin's median July return is also a (smaller) loss of 4.6%. In the prior 12 Julys, only five saw the coin's price close the month positive. So there's not much reason to hope for a bounce here.

Dogecoin's record is poor well beyond July. Zooming out offers no comfort, with the coin around 90% below its May 2021 peak.

Of course, meme coins use attention as fuel for growth, and attention isn't something that necessarily follows any seasonality patterns. That means no matter how bearish the coin's seasonality may seem when looking backward, it isn't an iron law that dictates the possibilities for its price action moving forward. There's still not much of a reason to consider buying Dogecoin, though.

The structural problem is the more important issue

There are many reasons to avoid buying Dogecoin, starting with the fact that it has no supply cap. About 5.2 billion new DOGE enter circulation each year, putting the current annual supply inflation rate near 3.4%.

Therefore, for the price to merely remain flat, fresh buying must absorb approximately 14 million DOGE daily. As far as the incentives for investors to actually do that buying go, there simply aren't any. The coin has no burn mechanism to constrain its growing supply, nor is there any staking mechanism to create a lockup of coins that would pull some of the float off the market.

What's more, the catalysts that bulls were hoping for to send Dogecoin higher have not panned out in the slightest. The exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the coin were launched in late 2025, but the biggest of the ETFs holds only about $13.7 million in net assets, and the existence of these funds hasn't arrested the coin's downward slide. There isn't any reason to expect that to change, either.

The best thing to do here is to look for an asset that can support a real investment thesis. Don't buy this coin, and sell it if you hold it. Whether or not there's some upside in July, the long-term picture isn't getting any better.

Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.