SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: Shares May Reclaim $200 in July

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on July 1, SpaceX ( SPCX) shares closed up 4.06% on Tuesday at $170.86, touching an intraday high of $173.28 and a low of $160.38, with trading volume exceeding 82 million shares. After experiencing a surge following its initial listing and a subsequent rapid pullback, the stock price has rebounded recently, indicating that market enthusiasm for SpaceX has not entirely faded.

From a market perspective, SpaceX's current trading logic primarily revolves around three main narratives: first, the Starlink satellite internet business is still viewed as the company's growth engine with the highest commercial certainty; second, the launch business holds a clear cost advantage in the reusable rocket sector; and third, long-term stories such as Starship, defense contracts, and the integration of AI with space infrastructure provide significant imaginative space for valuation. For bulls, SpaceX as a comprehensive platform combining satellite communications, space transportation, defense technology, and AI infrastructure is sufficient to support a larger valuation premium.

However, institutional views are not entirely aligned. Among the more optimistic institutions, Morgan Stanley believes that if the commercialization of Starlink, launch services, defense business, and future space infrastructure continues to progress, SpaceX's revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA potentially reaching $2.7 trillion. According to MarketBeat, 17 Wall Street analysts covering SPCX have a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy," with an average target price of approximately $209 and a high target price reaching up to $401, reflecting optimistic market expectations for long-term growth.

Yet, concerns from cautious observers are equally evident. Morningstar previously assigned a fair value estimate for SpaceX that was significantly below its market trading price, with core concerns focused on the valuation already pricing in many years of future growth ahead of schedule, while uncertainties remain regarding AI-related businesses, Starship commercialization, capital expenditures, and profitability. SpaceX's stock price spiked sharply to $225.64 after listing, but recently gave back those gains quickly, indicating that capital is not one-sidedly bullish, but rather swinging between the high-growth narrative and valuation pressures.

SpaceX Stock Price Daily Chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at SPCX's daily chart, the stock price has been in a continuous correction recently, briefly dipping below the first-day opening price of $150 during intraday trading on June 23. However, the closing price that day remained firmly above $150, indicating strong support near this level. Subsequently, the stock did not break below $150 despite three consecutive trading days of retracement, showing that a short-term bottom has formed.

Currently, SPCX's stock price has risen for three consecutive trading days and has broken through the $165 resistance level, opening up further upside. The next upside targets to watch are $173-$176. If this range is broken, the stock price will continue upward to test the $190-$194 resistance level, with a potential to rise above $200.