Cerebras vs. SpaceX: Which Is the Better AI IPO Stock to Buy and Hold for the Next 10 Years?

Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) and Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) are two of the most talked-about artificial intelligence-linked initial public offering stories of 2026. But investors should not put them in the same bucket.

Cerebras is an AI-focused chipmaker that offers an unusual alternative to Nvidia's widely used chips. SpaceX is a rocket, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure company after its merger with xAI.

So, which looks like the better buy-and-hold pick for the next 10 years?

Image source: Getty Images.

Cerebras' focus on fast AI inference at scale

Cerebras' primary product is its wafer-scale engine, a powerful AI processor built using an entire silicon wafer. Makers of traditional GPUs and CPUs slice those wafers up to manufacture dozens or hundreds of smaller chips, and AI workloads generally require clusters of such chips connected together in servers and data centers. But in those data centers, performance can be limited by how quickly data can move across chips, memory systems, and servers.

Cerebras aims to reduce the data-movement bottleneck in complex AI workloads by keeping more computing and communication on one massive processor. While both training and inference workloads can benefit from faster data movement, inference (running AI models in a production environment) is becoming an especially important use case, as companies need their AI models to deliver fast responses while handling reasoning-intensive tasks at scale.

OpenAI is the biggest reason investors are paying attention to Cerebras. Cerebras exited 2025 with remaining performance obligations (RPO, a measure of contracted backlog) of $24.6 billion, with a significant amount associated with OpenAI. In January 2026, OpenAI agreed to add 750 megawatts of Cerebras high-speed compute capacity to its platform in a deal valued at over $10 billion through 2028. Reuters later reported that OpenAI could spend more than $20 billion over three years on servers powered by Cerebras chips. The newer commitments reportedly doubled that earlier agreement.

The deal also gave OpenAI warrants that it can convert into a minority stake in the chipmaker, with the total number of shares tied to how much it spends with Cerebras. OpenAI also agreed to provide a loan of about $1 billion to help Cerebras scale up its manufacturing and build data centers for AI workloads.

Amazon has also partnered with Cerebras to make fast AI inference services available through Amazon Bedrock in AWS data centers. While this gives Cerebras a major cloud distribution channel, parts of the relationship still require definitive agreements. So, investors should treat the AWS relationship as a major opportunity, but not as fully de-risked revenue.

Cerebras' recent financials have been robust. In 2025, revenue rose 75.7% to $510 million. Revenue from its cloud and other services segment rose 93.6% to $151.6 million, showing that the company is moving beyond one-time hardware sales toward a model that features more recurring revenue.

Cerebras is currently trading at 90.2 times trailing-12-month sales, which appears to be a high premium. However, Wall Street appears to be valuing the company based on whether OpenAI-related demand can turn into delivered capacity, recognized revenue, and recurring cloud usage. If Cerebras executes, the company could be far larger in a few years. If it misses delivery timelines or service levels, the same OpenAI contract that supports the bull case could become the main risk.

SpaceX is a Starlink-funded AI infrastructure bet

The Starlink satellite broadband network continues to be the key growth engine for SpaceX. The company generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, and its Starlink-powered connectivity segment contributed $11.4 billion of that total. The connectivity segment also generated $4.4 billion of operating profit, giving SpaceX a profitable base to help fund satellite expansion, launch infrastructure, mobile connectivity, and AI compute build-out. SpaceX exited the first quarter of 2026 with 10.3 million Starlink subscribers, more than 9,600 satellites in orbit, and subscribers across 164 markets.

SpaceX's AI infrastructure business is also gaining momentum. The company has entered into a cloud services agreement with Alphabet, under which Google will pay $920 million per month from October 2026 to June 2029 for access to AI compute capacity. Anthropic has also agreed to lease the full computing power of SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center, which provides over 300 megawatts of capacity.

If revenue from Google and Anthropic converts as expected, investors may start valuing SpaceX more like a space-enabled AI infrastructure company.

SpaceX's next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, could also become a major competitive advantage. If the Starship V3 version becomes reliable and rapidly reusable, it could meaningfully lower launch costs, deploy larger next-generation Starlink satellites, support Artemis and other deep-space missions, and eventually help SpaceX deploy AI data centers in orbit.

Starlink has already expanded into mobile service through a direct-to-cell service, connecting regular smartphones directly to satellites. Its spectrum deal with EchoStar could make that service faster and more economical, helping SpaceX move deeper into the telecommunications market.

However, SpaceX also carries major risks. Its AI business is still losing money. SpaceX's business model is also capital-intensive, with capital expenditures reaching $20.7 billion in 2025 and $10.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The Google compute deal also carries delivery risk, since Google can terminate the agreement or pay lower fees if SpaceX does not meet the committed GPU delivery targets.

Better buy?

SpaceX looks like the stronger business in the next decade. Starlink already gives the company a large recurring revenue base, while Starship can help lower launch costs. The xAI merger gives SpaceX its own AI products, including Grok. Colossus is SpaceX's large AI data center system, giving the company a way to sell computing capacity to AI customers such as Anthropic.

Hence, SpaceX has multiple growth engines and may be less affected by weakness in any one business line.

Cerebras, on the other hand, could offer bigger upside if demand for fast inference becomes a major AI bottleneck. But for now, the company remains highly dependent on OpenAI and a few large customers. The company also must prove its ability to deliver massive compute capacity on time and justify its rich valuation.

Hence, SpaceX looks like the stronger 10-year pick because it has more ways to grow.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.