SpaceX Falls for the First Time Since Listing. Annual Loss of 4.9 Billion Yet Market Cap Surpasses Amazon, Market Fears Systemic Risk Caused by Valuation Bubble

TradingKey - On June 16, during early U.S. trading, SpaceX ( SPCX) reversed its gains to trend lower. As of press time, it fell 3.85% to trade at $194.03, with its latest market capitalization standing at $2.57 trillion, temporarily making it the sixth-largest company in the U.S.

During yesterday's intraday trading, SpaceX's market value briefly topped $3 trillion, surpassing Microsoft ( MSFT) and Amazon ( AMZN) to become the fourth-largest company in the U.S. Its gains subsequently narrowed, closing at $201.80, up approximately 50% from its offering price of $135, officially becoming the fifth-largest company in the U.S., valued below Microsoft but above Amazon.

Controversy over the valuation of this aerospace company, the largest IPO in history, has never stopped.

But judging by fundamental data, SpaceX is clearly overvalued by the market and not worth this much: Microsoft generates hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue annually with an annual profit exceeding $100 billion. Amazon's annual revenue exceeds $700 billion, with profits also reaching tens of billions of dollars.

In contrast, SpaceX generated $18.674 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $6.584 billion and a full-year net loss of approximately $4.9 billion. Based on a total market capitalization of $2.66 trillion, the company's current price-to-sales ratio is approximately 142 times.

However, the market has another narrative, which is that stock prices reflect future expectations. Goldman Sachs' projection model provided to potential IPO investors shows that SpaceX's revenue will climb from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $474 billion by 2030, with the AI business contributing $322 billion to become the company's core growth engine. Morgan Stanley's revenue forecast for the same period is relatively cautious, at around $330 billion.

Overall, only one of the three major businesses has achieved profitability, and SpaceX's turning point for profitability is entirely tied to the pace of its AI cash burn. Currently, among SpaceX's three main business segments, only Starlink is profitable, while the AI sector remains the largest source of losses, continuously dragging down the company's overall profits.

However, Starlink's profitability has proven that SpaceX itself has the capability to generate profit. When the group can achieve sustained net profit depends heavily on how capital expenditure for the AI business is controlled: if management is willing to slow the pace of expansion, overall profitability would not be difficult; but given the current level of investment, continuing to post net losses on a GAAP basis over the next few years is entirely expected.

It is important to note that amid an optimistic environment where market sentiment continues to heat up, potential risks should not be overlooked.

A disconnect between valuation and fundamentals is the core driver of a bubble. When trillions of dollars in wealth are tied to valuations unsupported by solid fundamentals, even a mild correction could trigger a chain reaction that extends far beyond this single stock.