SpaceX Surpassed Broadcom, Meta Platforms, and Tesla in Market Cap on Its IPO Day. Can It Take on Amazon's Market Cap Next?
Key Points
SpaceX has become the world’s sixth-most-valuable company.
But it’s grossly overvalued, and its stock will pull back over the next few months.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), the aerospace and AI company founded by Elon Musk, went public on June 12 at a valuation of $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history. Today, its market cap reached $2.40 trillion, making it the sixth-most-valuable company in the world.
That puts it ahead of tech giants like Broadcom, Meta, and Tesla, but could it overtake Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) -- which is worth $2.65 trillion -- within the next few days?
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Can SpaceX maintain its sky-high valuation?
SpaceX's revenue rose 33% to $18.67 billion in 2025. That growth rate is impressive, but the company's market cap of $2.40 trillion values it at 128 times that figure. That sky-high price-to-sales ratio makes SpaceX seem more like a meme stock than a growth stock.
SpaceX is also unprofitable. After recasting its results to include its integration of xAI (which owns X and Grok) this year, it posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025. The losses from that new AI division and its space division are completely offsetting Starlink's profits.
SpaceX also plans to ramp up its AI investments, so its bottom line should stay in the red for the foreseeable future. Therefore, investors shouldn't be surprised if SpaceX sells more shares (since it offered less than 5% of its shares in its IPO) and takes on more debt.
Even if SpaceX grows its revenue at a 30% CAGR from 2025 to 2028, it would still look overvalued at 58 times its $41 billion in revenue for the final year.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), which competes with SpaceX in the orbital rocket market, trades at 37 times its 2028 sales. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS), which competes with SpaceX in the satellite internet services market, trades at just 13 times its 2028 sales. Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are both smaller than SpaceX, but they're growing much faster. In other words, SpaceX's stock could lose half its value before it's fairly valued relative to its industry peers.
Can SpaceX surpass Amazon's market cap?
Over the next few days, a fear of missing out might boost SpaceX's market cap past Amazon's and make it the world's fifth-most-valuable company. But those gains won't be sustainable because it's much pricier than Amazon.
Amazon, the world's largest e-commerce and cloud infrastructure company, is only valued at three times this year's sales and 28 times this year's earnings. Analysts expect its revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 14% and 21%, respectively.
Amazon's e-commerce business will continue to grow as it upgrades its logistics network and enters more overseas markets. Its cloud infrastructure business, which already hosts the world's top generative AI platforms, will profit from the ongoing AI boom.
Most of Amazon's revenue comes from its e-commerce business, but most of its profits come from its cloud business. That's why it can consistently expand its e-commerce ecosystem with discounts, low-margin hardware devices, and more perks for its Prime subscribers. It also continues to expand its high-margin advertising business, which is evolving into its second profit engine alongside its cloud business by peddling more promoted listings and integrated ads.
That's why Amazon is firmly profitable, while SpaceX isn't. If Amazon matches analysts' estimates and maintains its forward multiple, its stock would rise by 42% to $350 over the next 12 months, boosting its market cap to $3.76 trillion. By then, I'd expect SpaceX's valuation to settle down to more reasonable levels -- so it will likely be much less valuable than Amazon.
Investors shouldn't expect SpaceX's stock to keep rising
SpaceX has been defying gravity since its market debut, but that euphoria won't last very long. Its initial rally is attracting a lot of attention, but that momentum will fade once its IPO investors flip their shares and its short-term traders take the money and run. Instead of chasing its post-IPO rally, investors should ignore the noise and wait for its inevitable pullback.
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Leo Sun has positions in Amazon and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Rocket Lab, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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