Green Thumb Industries: Marijuana Meme Stock or Dream Stock?

Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF) is a cut above other marijuana stocks. In contrast to the vast majority that struggle to stay afloat, let alone report net income, Green Thumb currently has a streak of profitability. It's also delivering revenue growth.

Unfortunately, we live in a time of caution and bearishness on cannabis companies. Here's my take on whether Green Thumb has enough potential for investors to buy the stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

A strategic player

Green Thumb differentiates itself by careful segmentation. It has a variety of brands, formats, and price points to appeal to the wide variety of marijuana consumers.

For instance, there's the high-end, select Rythm brand for discerning clientele, available in flower, vape cartridges, and resin concentrates. The more casual weed aficionado is the demographic for Good Green, its line of budget flower products.

As a multi-state operator (MSO), Green Thumb has been similarly strategic in building out its dispensary network.

It currently boasts more than 110 stores across the U.S., with an emphasis on limited-license states such as its native Illinois, Florida, and Ohio. The number of medical and/or recreational pot dispensaries is concentrated in such places, giving retailers active there a big competitive edge and relatively strong pricing power.

Such factors helped power Green Thumb's 7%-plus year-over-year revenue growth in its first quarter (to a little more than $300 million). On the bottom line, net income according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) surged even higher, nearly doubling to $15.4 million from the year-ago profit of $8.3 million.

Zooming out a bit, from 2021 to 2025, Green Thumb's annual top line grew, albeit at a modest pace. The company was also consistently profitable on the bottom line across that stretch.

What's notable about this is that revenue continued to increase even after the COVID-19 pandemic faded -- a relatively prosperous time for the pot industry, as many people were effectively shut inside their homes for long stretches (and thus, more inclined to use cannabis).

We can't say that for certain about other notable American MSOs; Curaleaf, for example, saw revenue decline in 2025 and it was unprofitable in all five of those years. Cresco Labs' declines began in 2023 and, like Curaleaf, remained in the red throughout that half-decade.

Another benefit of medical weed

While the Drug Enforcement Administration's (DEA) recent rescheduling of marijuana wasn't quite the slam-dunk solution many weed industry players and investors had hoped, it did provide certain points of light in the darkness.

In shifting medical marijuana (but not recreational) from Schedule I to Schedule III, it freed the former from the Internal Revenue Service's Section 280E -- which stipulates that companies transacting in Schedule I or Schedule II drugs cannot deduct ordinary business expenses such as rent, wages, insurance, etc. Is it any wonder so many cannabis businesses were chronically unprofitable?

Happily for Green Thumb, the company has a thriving operation focused on weed for healthcare purposes, so the rescheduling (and the resulting accounting benefits) will greatly improve its financials in that business.

Management is also making hay while the sun shines by submitting applications to register selected medical cannabis operations with the DEA. Although this is a formal step that might not make a vast difference in its relationship with the authorities, it shows the company is proactive, detailed, and careful in its approach.

Thumbs up?

Another way Green Thumb management exercises care is by not providing formal forecasts in its earnings reports, only discussing in general terms what future periods may bring.

On its first-quarter earnings call, company President Anthony Georgiadis said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the pot industry generally and Green Thumb specifically. Yet he warned that both could face pricing pressure because of oversupply and intensifying competition.

Management's strategy for dealing with this, he added, is "doubling down on the fundamentals, operational discipline, brand strength, scale, and a strong balance sheet."

At any rate, analysts are expecting different trajectories for annual revenue and profitability. As a group, they believe that the former will tick up by 3% this year to more than $1.2 billion.

Per-share net income is forecast to tumble, from 2025's $0.26 per share to $0.12. That sounds scary, but Green Thumb booked significant ($83 million) one-time adjustments to profit in the fourth quarter of 2025, skewing that year's result.

So, all in all, does this make Green Thumb a buy? I'd say yes, but with a major caveat -- I feel this stock is only for investors bullish on the future of the marijuana business generally. Ultimately, I believe the long-suffering industry will get the complete rescheduling (or even legalization) it so badly craves; those who agree would do well to invest in the better MSOs. Green Thumb certainly qualifies.

Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Cresco Labs and Green Thumb Industries. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.