Prediction: Nvidia Stock Won't Soar After Wednesday's Earnings, Even With a Blowout

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is set to report its fiscal 2027 first-quarter results (the period ended April 26, 2026) after the closing bell on Wednesday, May 20. And going into the report, the chipmaker's stock is on a tear. Shares are up about 10% over the past month and roughly 19% so far in 2026, lifting Nvidia's market capitalization to around $5.4 trillion as of this writing.

In other words, optimism on Wall Street about Nvidia stock has been building heading into Wednesday, with shares closing in on the all-time high they set just last week. Sure, there's been some volatility, but overall shares are up sharply over the last 30 days.

But despite a long string of beating its own guidance, Nvidia's stock has actually slipped after three of its last four quarterly reports. The clearest recent example came in February, when the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker delivered fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion -- up 73% year over year -- and guided fiscal Q1 to about $78 billion. Yet shares still fell about 5.5% the next day and were down close to 11% a month later.

All of this to say, with Nvidia shares trading at about 45 times earnings as of this writing, even another blowout may not be enough to keep the stock soaring after Wednesday.

Let me explain.

Image source: Getty Images.

The business case is strong

In Nvidia's fiscal fourth quarter (the period ended Jan. 25, 2026), data center revenue grew 75% year over year to $62.3 billion -- representing about 91% of total sales. This fueled incredible overall business growth. Total revenue of $68.1 billion translated to 73% growth -- an acceleration from 62% in fiscal Q3 and 56% in fiscal Q2.

"Computing demand is growing exponentially -- the agentic AI inflection point has arrived," said Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang in the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release.

Even more telling: Nvidia's supply related purchase commitments nearly doubled in a single quarter, climbing to about $95.2 billion from $50.3 billion at the end of fiscal Q3.

For Wednesday's fiscal first-quarter report, Nvidia has guided revenue to about $78 billion, plus or minus 2%. At the midpoint, that implies about 77% year-over-year growth, even though the figure assumes essentially zero data center compute revenue from China.

And the broader spending backdrop remains supportive too. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms have collectively said they expect their capital expenditures to potentially exceed $700 billion in 2026 -- up from closer to $400 billion last year. And, of course, a meaningful slice of that spend will almost undoubtedly flow to Nvidia.

So another headline-grabbing quarter on both the top line and the forward outlook seems well within reach.

The problem isn't the business; it's the price

The issue is what's left to surprise. The market has already priced in a lot, both in the share price and in the narrative around it.

Just look at the recent trajectory. After Nvidia's fiscal Q3 update in November, in which top-line growth accelerated to 62% year over year, shares popped briefly before fading. Then came the fiscal Q4 update in February -- another revenue acceleration, this time to 73%, with a fiscal Q1 outlook well above what investors had expected -- and the stock still slid sharply.

Expectations have climbed since then. Sentiment has (mostly) been ratcheting up steadily in the weeks leading into Wednesday, and the share price reflects it. Anything short of a clear upside surprise has likely already been priced in.

There's also the issue of normal cyclicality -- something that may not be reflected well enough in the stock's price. Semiconductors have historically moved in waves, and Nvidia's customers are unusually concentrated -- so a cyclical downturn could hit hard and fast if it does occur at some point. In fiscal 2026, just two direct customers accounted for 36% of Nvidia's total sales, up from three direct customers at 34% the prior year. Additionally, hyperscalers like Amazon and Alphabet are also continuing to ramp internal silicon programs, which could chip away at Nvidia's pricing power over time even as overall demand stays strong.

Longer term, I do think Nvidia shares are at least somewhat attractive given the durability of AI infrastructure spending and the company's full-stack lead. But at today's price, I'd treat the stock more as a hold than a buy -- and even as a hold, it's a high-risk one. The current valuation essentially leaves no room for the kind of cyclical pause this industry has always eventually delivered.

Of course, my prediction could be wrong. Nvidia could blow past its own forecast by an unusually wide margin, or share an update on its Rubin platform that resets expectations even higher again. The point here isn't really to call Wednesday's move. It's that once a stock has already absorbed almost every reasonable version of "good news," even an excellent quarter can simply meet -- not exceed -- the bar.

Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.