Nvidia Reports Earnings on May 20. Here's the One Number That Matters Most.
Key Points
Nvidia topped revenue expectations in every quarter of its fiscal 2026.
The number to watch is its forward guidance for its next quarter.
That will show how much hyperscaler spending Nvidia is capturing and the success of its transition from the Blackwell to the Vera Rubin architecture.
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The next earnings report for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is days away. It will report its first-quarter 2027 financial results on May 20.
Nvidia and analysts expect quarterly revenue of $78 billion. The chipmaker exceeded revenue expectations in all four quarters of its fiscal 2026, so a revenue beat is essentially priced in at this point. For investors planning to dig into Nvidia's earnings, there's a more important number to focus on.
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Image source: Nvidia.
The forward guidance for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 2027 carries more weight, for a few reasons. Nvidia is currently transitioning from its Blackwell architecture to its Vera Rubin architecture. Blackwell shipments are winding down, and Vera Rubin production is accelerating. High forward revenue guidance would be a sign that demand for Nvidia GPUs is continuing to grow during the transition.
In addition, multiple hyperscalers have recently raised their projected capital expenditures for 2026. Meta Platforms increased its capex estimates by $10 billion (to between $125 billion and $145 billion) in its first-quarter earnings report. Microsoft raised its 2026 capex forecast to $190 billion earlier this month.
However, Meta and Microsoft are also both investing in custom AI chips, in part to reduce their reliance on Nvidia. Nvidia's forward guidance will give investors an idea of whether increased spending from AI companies is going to Nvidia or being scooped up by custom chipmakers, such as Broadcom.
Analysts are expecting forward revenue guidance of about $87 billion for Q2 2027. If the company's projections are higher, it's a strong signal that Nvidia remains at the center of the AI build-out.
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Lyle Daly has positions in Broadcom, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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