VinFast Auto Makes a Big Splash but Might Be More of a Sell Than Ever

VinFast Auto (NASDAQ: VFS) has been a polarizing stock from the get-go. It has been lauded for its state-of-the-art manufacturing based in Vietnam, where it dominates its home auto market and boasts the backing of an extremely wealthy founder and parent company. It even had ambitious plans to more lucrative Western markets.

Unfortunately, the company has lost its luster with investors, and its entry into the U.S. was largely a failure. Now the company is retrenching in its regionak markets with some ambitious ideas.

What's going on?

While VinFast isn't giving up on getting to Western markets, the electric vehicle (EV) maker is going back to its early days by zeroing in on India's massive two-wheeler market. VinFast has already begun selling and assembling a limited vehicle lineup in India this year but has now confirmed plans to bring three of its electric scooters, the Evo, Feliz, and Viper, to India.

The early plan calls for units to arrive as completely knocked-down (CKD) kits to be assembled locally at VinFast's plant in Tamil Nadu. Longer-term plans call for a deeper localization of production and full-scale manufacturing in India. It's a big deal for VinFast. India is a top motorcycle and scooter market in the world by volume, with millions of units sold annually and an increasing appetite for electric mobility.

Image source: Getty Images.

In a way, VinFast is going back to its roots. While VinFast was founded in 2017 and initially produced cars in 2019, it introduced its first e-scooters in 2021 before transitioning to 100% EV production at the end of 2022. Here's the kicker: Morotized scooters aren't recreational vehicles in India the way they are in Western markets. These types of scooters are essential for daily transportation for a big chunk of the population, and increasingly that transportation is switching to electric.

It's a part of a bigger pivot after the company struggled to gain any traction in the U.S. market with EVs. Now VinFast is more focused on expanding in emerging markets in Southeast Asia and India with demand and government support -- think Indonesia, India, and the Phillipines.

VinFastis back to focusing on emerging markets with demand for electrification, and making a big splash in India are all positive, but is VinFast a good investment?

Not so fast

While many automotive manufacturers focus on higher total profit per vehicle, despite notoriously low margins, or losses for most EVs, the e-scooter business is typically different in that it can generate higher margins but lower total profit per vehicle -- a sedan can sell for 10 to 15 times a scooter's cost, or more. That means VinFast needs impressive scale, sooner rather than later, for its e-scooters to make a strong financial impact. India has the potential to drive scale for the Vietnamese EV maker's e-scooter business, but it will face entrenched competitors with hefty market share.

Ultimately, it's a good move for VinFast to refocus on Southeast Asia and India. However, that isn't going to fix the company's major cash burn and net loss problems anytime soon. VinFast remains a speculative and high-risk investment and should be watched from a distance.

Daniel Miller has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.