3 Headwinds Facing Pfizer in 2026

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies. It has a long history of innovation and success. Add in a lofty 6.6% dividend yield, and dividend investors are likely to find the stock highly attractive. Before you buy it, however, consider these three 2026 headwinds.

1. Pfizer is behind the curve

Pfizer's dividend yield is so high at least in part because the stock has fallen more than 50% from its 2021 highs. There are a number of reasons for this fall from grace, but one very important one is Pfizer's lack of a GLP-1 drug -- a type of medication that helps manage diabetes and promote weight loss.

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That is not for lack of trying. Pfizer's internal GLP-1 candidate was dropped, leaving it far behind GLP-1 leaders Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, which both have GLP-1 drugs on the market. To Pfizer's credit, it didn't just give up. It quickly moved to acquire another company with a promising GLP-1 drug pipeline. And it agreed to distribute a GLP-1 pill for a Chinese company, if that drug gets approved.

Still, Pfizer is the also-ran in the GLP-1 space. It needs to prove that it can still innovate in 2026, and good news on its GLP-1 progress will be very important.

2. The clock is ticking

One reason investors are so dismayed by Pfizer's GLP-1 setback is that the company is approaching key patent cliffs. That's when blockbuster drugs lose patent protections and face generic competition. Normally, that leads to a sizable drop in demand for the branded drug. Pfizer's oncology drug Ibrance will likely see generic competition in 2027, with cardiovascular offerings Eliquis and Vyndaqel next up in 2028.

To be fair, new drug development and patent expirations usually don't perfectly line up. So Pfizer is really just facing normal industry pressures regarding its patent cliffs. However, investors still have a right to be worried, since 2026 is essentially the last year before revenues from key drugs could start to decline.

3. Pfizer needs to cover its dividend

Pfizer's dividend payout ratio is hovering around 100%. That's a worrying level generally. However, you have to add the company's setbacks in the GLP-1 space and its upcoming patent cliffs into the story. Do that, and the payout ratio becomes very worrying.

Dividends aren't actually paid out of earnings; they are paid out of cash flow. So a dividend payout ratio can remain above 100% for a little while without triggering a dividend cut. That said, Pfizer recently made a large acquisition, and the pharmaceutical sector is capital-intensive due to the constant need for research and development.

Pfizer is almost certain to survive the current headwinds as a business. However, the dividend may not. It will be important for the company to support its dividend in 2026, and it would be even better if the payout ratio fell below 100%.

Pfizer is a turnaround story

When you step back and look at the big picture, Pfizer is really a good company going through a tough period of time. That makes it an attractive turnaround story. The high yield might entice dividend lovers, but the dividend could be cut. Conservative dividend investors should probably tread with caution.

That said, dividend lovers shouldn't discard Pfizer completely. It is a large and important drugmaker that is probably well worth keeping on your watch list so you can monitor its turnaround progress during the year. If things go well in 2026, Pfizer's outlook may improve enough to make it a dividend buy, too.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Pfizer. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.