US Dollar Index treads water above 97.00 ahead of ISM Manufacturing PMI data
- US Dollar Index gains support as caution builds around the Fed’s policy outlook.
- Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair is seen as hawkish, favoring rate cuts but less aggressively than alternatives.
- The Greenback gained as risk sentiment improved after the US Senate advanced a government funding package.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering more than 1% gains in the previous session and trading near 97.20 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Traders await the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January due later in the day.
The US Dollar gains support from growing caution around the Fed’s policy outlook following President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which markets view as a more hawkish choice who would support lower interest rates, though less aggressively than other potential candidates.
Warsh is also expected to rein in the Fed’s balance sheet, potentially shrinking market liquidity. Traders still price in two Fed rate cuts this year under Warsh, even as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains split on the pace and scope of easing. Investors now look to Friday’s monthly jobs report for fresh labor market clues.
The Greenback also gained traction as risk sentiment improved after the US Senate reached an agreement to advance a government funding package, thereby averting a shutdown, according to Politico.
US producer-side inflation firmed, moving further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and reinforcing the central bank’s policy stance. US PPI inflation holds steady at 3.0% year-over-year (YoY) in December, unchanged from November and above expectations for a moderation to 2.7%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, accelerated to 3.3% YoY from 3.0%, defying forecasts for a decline to 2.9% and highlighting persistent upstream price pressures.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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