1 Big Prediction for XRP in 2026

Up 13% to start off 2026, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is once again starting to look like the type of high-upside cryptocurrency that investors can trust.

In fact, I'm making one big prediction for XRP in 2026: The world's fourth-largest cryptocurrency is going to set a new all-time high and end the year trading above the $4 mark.

Can XRP really double in value?

A price of $4 might not sound like a particularly bold prediction, until you consider the fact that XRP currently trades for a price of just $2. Moreover, XRP has continually over-promised and under-delivered for more than a decade. Since it began trading on exchanges in 2013, XRP has never once traded higher than a price of $3.84, and that was in January 2018.

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Understandably, consensus sentiment on XRP is not very high right now. According to data from CoinCodex, the average price prediction for XRP in 2026 is just $2.20. That price target essentially assumes that XRP will end the year up 10%. That's OK, but certainly not worth the risk and volatility of investing in the cryptocurrency asset class.

Admittedly, XRP did make a run at the $4 price level last year. But after hitting a multi-year high of $3.65 in July, XRP promptly gave back all of its gains. It ended the year under the $2 mark, which is why sentiment is so low right now. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

What do online prediction markets think?

If you buy into the numbers coming out of online prediction markets, XRP has a negligible chance of hitting the $4 mark this year. On the Kalshi prediction platform, for example, traders give XRP just a 2% chance of smashing through the $4 mark by the end of 2026.

The outlook was entirely different last year, however. When XRP was cruising to its multi-year high of $3.65 in July, traders gave XRP an 86% chance of hitting the $4 mark. Quite frankly, at the time, XRP looked like a slam-dunk investment opportunity.

That's perhaps the biggest lesson here: in the crypto market, sentiment can turn on a dime, and that's especially the case with XRP. Throughout its history, it has often traded like a meme coin, dependent on hype, buzz, and speculation to send it soaring higher. When the hype and buzz wear off, XRP typically gives back all its gains.

So, if you're thinking about investing in XRP, keep your expectations in check. Yes, it has the potential to double in value and hit the $4 price level in 2026. But it also has the potential to do what it always does: Tease investors with the prospect of huge, outsized gains, only to give them all back later.

Dominic Basulto has positions in XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.