Euro struggles as oil gains weigh on EUR/CAD
- Rising crude oil prices support the Canadian Dollar, putting pressure on EUR/CAD.
- Geopolitical developments and ongoing US-Iran talks keep gains in global oil prices constrained.
- Traders await Eurozone October HICP data to gauge future European Central Bank monetary policy.
EUR/CAD depreciates after registering gains the previous day, trading around 1.5620 during European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is facing challenges as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives strong support from rising crude oil prices. As the largest supplier of crude oil to the United States, Canada's economy and currency remain heavily tied to performance in the global energy markets.
However, potential gains in oil prices stay constrained by ongoing geopolitical developments. Crude prices could face further headwinds as Iran confirmed that indirect discussions with the United States aimed at resolving their eight-month conflict are still underway. These talks follow several days of negotiations between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators, which yielded revised proposals without achieving a breakthrough.
Traders are awaiting the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October, scheduled for release on Wednesday. This data is expected to significantly influence expectations around the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Market forecasts expect headline HICP growth to accelerate slightly to 3.9% year-on-year, up from 3.8% in September. Meanwhile, core HICP, which excludes volatile components such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, is projected to hold steady at 2.5% year-on-year.
Euro risk premium persists as French spreads stay elevated
Analysts at ING highlight that French government bond spreads “didn’t benefit from lower oil prices yesterday,” suggesting that “levels above 150bp are the new normal now.” They argue that, against this backdrop, “it therefore remains hard for the Euro to shake out the lingering risk premium,” with “much more tangible progress” on the energy front still required “for oil to trade sustainably lower from here.”
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | -0.04% | 0.11% | -0.19% | 0.38% | 0.04% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.05% | -0.22% | 0.35% | -0.02% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.13% | -0.15% | 0.41% | 0.05% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.13% | -0.30% | 0.27% | -0.09% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.57% | 0.20% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.38% | -0.35% | -0.41% | -0.27% | -0.57% | -0.35% | -0.46% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.05% | 0.09% | -0.20% | 0.35% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.19% | -0.10% | 0.46% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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