Euro: ECB rhetoric and Warsh risk guide downside – ING
Source Fxstreet
Chris Turner at ING argues the ECB is unlikely to drop its tightening rhetoric yet, even if a second September hike might be a mistake. He notes the ECB wants to talk tough to manage inflation dynamics, keeping one hike priced by early next year, and warns EUR/USD could revisit the 1.1325 lows on Kevin Warsh’s comments.
ECB stance keeps Euro under pressure
"As our team have been discussing this week, we think it is too early for the ECB to abandon its tightening rhetoric – even though a second hike in September could be a policy mistake."
"The ECB script remains that last month's rate hike was not an insurance move, and it sounds like the ECB wants to talk tough to ride out this inflation hump and ensure that second-round effects do not emerge."
"That suggests market pricing of one ECB rate hike by early next year can stay in money market curves."
"EUR/USD could make a break back to the 1.1325 lows on Warsh today."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
Insights – On November 21, Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo (PDD) will release its Q3 2024 earnings.
Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
After a turbulent 2025, what lies ahead for commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency markets in 2026?
Gold Price Forecast: Does Gold Falling Below $4,000 Mean the Bull Market Is Over? Will It Still Rise in the Second Half of 2026?Heading into the second half of 2026, the gold market has transitioned from a strong-performing asset at the start of the year into one pulling back from its highs. Recently, gold prices
Heading into the second half of 2026, the gold market has transitioned from a strong-performing asset at the start of the year into one pulling back from its highs. Recently, gold prices
Related Instrument
