US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Likely remain subdued as Fed’s policy decision awaited
- The US Dollar Index edges down to near 101.30 ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy announcement.
- Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.
- The Fed might refrain from delivering monetary policy guidance.
The US Dollar (USD) trades marginally lower in the European trade on Wednesday, reflecting caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 101.30.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.11% | -0.10% | -0.11% | -0.10% | 0.34% | -0.00% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | 0.11% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.48% | 0.09% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | -0.00% | -0.00% | -0.02% | 0.45% | 0.08% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.34% | -0.48% | -0.45% | -0.48% | -0.45% | -0.35% | -0.44% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.08% | 0.35% | -0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.09% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.02% | 0.44% | 0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% are 69.5%, calling this a straight fifth meeting when policymakers will avoid any monetary policy adjustment.
Investors will closely listen to the monetary policy statement and remarks from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at its press conference to get fresh cues regarding inflation and the interest rate outlook. Warsh is unlikely to deliver any comments about the interest rate outlook, as he explicitly said in the June meeting that “so-called forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture”.
On the geopolitical front, the joint military operation by Saudi Arabia and the United States (US) Central Command (CENTCOM) in Iraq against Iran-aligned forces has boosted oil prices.
US Dollar Index technical analysis
The Dollar Index Spot trades slightly lower at around 101.31 at press time. However, the near-term bias stays mildly bullish as price holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 101.09, suggesting the broader uptrend remains underpinned despite recent consolidation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 indicates steady, moderately positive momentum rather than overextended conditions, hinting that dips may continue to attract buying interest while the index trades above its nearby moving average support.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA around 101.09, with a break below this level likely opening the door to a deeper corrective move to the July 15 low at 100.35. As long as the index defends this support and holds above 101.00, the technical tone favors a resumption of the upward bias towards the one-year high at 101.80.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
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