Trump's election chances could impact Bitcoin and crypto prices

Source Fxstreet
  • Donald Trump's Polymarket odds appear to be influencing the crypto market.
  • Trump's World Liberty Financial is set to launch later and has garnered almost 150K members.
  • Trump has shown a clear positive attitude toward the crypto industry in his campaigns as opposed to Harris's.
  • Trump-themed meme tokens have all fallen more than 10%.

Donald Trump's Polymarket winning odds is showing signs of correlation with the crypto market as the US presidential elections approach.

Trump's crypto support is influencing investors’ positioning ahead of election

The Republican presidential candidate has wooed top crypto voices and community members through several actions, including accepting crypto donations and dedicating a part of the GOP platform to cryptocurrencies and blockchain.

The former president also announced the launch of a new crypto platform known as World Liberty Financial, with both his sons fully involved. The platform has already garnered much of the crypto industry's attention, with almost 150K members on its Telegram page.

Bernstein analysts predicted that a Trump win could send Bitcoin's price to $80,000, while a Harris win could see the top asset decline over 60% to $20,000. 

The prediction is based on the crypto industry's sentiment towards both administrations. While there has been much backing for Trump and the Republicans, Democrats and candidate Kamala Harris have not received much support from crypto community members.

As the elections draw closer, several crypto investors are positioning their investments based on the Polymarket odds of Trump and Harris. Many expect a Trump victory to lead to another price rally for Bitcoin, while a Kamala Harris win could negatively affect crypto prices. 

This is due to the Harris campaign's lack of clarity on her stand on crypto. Several crypto community members are also skeptical of another Democratic administration following the series of enforcement actions against crypto companies in the past few years.

Notably, President Biden's veto of SAB-121 earlier in the year also forced several crypto community members to shift attention toward Trump.

Trump's Polymarket odds faced strong competition in August after Kamala Harris's odds rose sharply. The Republican candidate retook the lead later in the month after news of a potential Harris anti-crypto administration surfaced.

Over the past few days, Trump has been behind on odds against Harris. This began after their debate on Wednesday night, where it seemed the Democrat candidate outmatched him. Consequently, the price of Bitcoin has declined after a brief rally based on hopes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by 50 basis points.

Notably, Bitcoin's price jumped over 6% in July after an assassination attempt on Donald Trump. This also resulted in a surge in Trump's winning odds on Polymarket.

Another notable event was Trump's appearance at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, which briefly caused prices to rise.

Meanwhile, PolitiFi tokens named after Donald Trump have all been down over 10% in the past 24 hours. MAGA, TREMP and STRUMP are all down 10%, 10% and 14% on the day, respectively, amid reports of a second alleged assassination attempt on Trump over the weekend.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 29, Tue
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
20 hours ago
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
placeholder
Gold falls to near $4,150 as higher Treasury yields, oil prices outweigh softer PCE inflationGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
Author  FXStreet
1 hour ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
Related Instrument
goTop
quote