Is Elon Musk Right About AGI by 2027? Traders Betting on It Say Probably Not

Elon Musk has endorsed a viral post predicting that major US labs will reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) in 2027. His one-word reply called the forecast accurate and drew 1.8 million views within about 3 hours.

The post, from X user Dr Singularity, says Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 already feels close to AGI. It then argues that Google, OpenAI, SpaceXAI, and others will follow.

Accurate https://t.co/7degp3rj0K

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 28, 2026

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Musk’s Nod Lands in a Month Crowded With AGI Claims

Earlier this month, OpenAI President Greg Brockman described the September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra as a “generational leap.” 

“Welcome to the AGI era,” he said during the briefing. 

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also posted on X that AGI had arrived. Musk has made a similar claim for his own lab. 

On September 14, a user asked him how close Grok 4.8 would come to AGI. He replied on X that AGI would arrive with Grok 5, an exchange BeInCrypto covered at the time. 

The latest thread ties that race to power capacity.

“This prediction is based on the amount of compute they already have + additional compute being added all the time….It looks like few GW of compute are enough for strong AGI, now imagine what we will able to do with 10-20GW of compute which are rapidly coming online,” Dr Singularity posted.

Traders Keep Their Distance From 2027

Prediction markets have not moved in step with Musk. Kalshi traders gave OpenAI roughly a 44.3% chance of announcing AGI before 2028.

Confidence drops further for a claim this year. Polymarket traders gave OpenAI an 18% chance of announcing AGI before 2027, while Kalshi priced it at 14.8%.

The group behind the benchmark OpenAI shared at launch shares that caution. Zapier and ARC Prize co-founder Mike Knoop called Astra’s result a large leap but said evidence for AGI was still lacking.

Warnings Take Aim at the Speed of the Race

Meanwhile, the labs racing toward AGI are also among those warning about it. In a September 6 essay, OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki said no lab had solved alignment and monitoring well enough.

“I am concerned no one is prepared for the consequences of a continued rapid rise in machine intelligence,” he said.

Jerome Glenn chairs the AGI Panel of the UN Council of Presidents of the General Assembly. He argued that if governments fail to regulate the shift to AGI, humans could lose control to machine intelligence.

“AGI could enable some states and malicious non-state actors to build chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. Moreover, large AGI-controlled swarms of lethal autonomous weapons could themselves constitute a new category of WMDs,” he added.

Others question whether the race leads to AGI at all. Among them is Turing Award winner Yann LeCun, co-founder of AI startup AMI Labs. On September 20, he said on X that autoregressive LLMs alone will not reach human-level AI. 

He argued that if they could, consumers would already have home robots and Level-4 or Level-5 self-driving cars.

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