This COVID Stock Market Winner Is Making a Comeback, Up 125% Year to Date

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares closed up 12% on Friday, June 26, extending a run that has pushed the stock 125.51% higher since January.

The move caps a multi-week climb from lows near $46 in early June. A few story lines have driven the recovery.

FDA Flu Vote Removes a Major Overhang

The FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee voted 9-0 on June 18 that mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010) carries a favorable benefit-risk profile for adults aged 50 and older. A unanimous panel verdict is rare in biotech.

It sharply cuts regulatory uncertainty ahead of the August 5 PDUFA decision date. If the FDA approves, mFLUSIVA would become the first mRNA-based seasonal flu product licensed in the US.

Wall Street Stays Cautious

Piper Sandler raised its price target to $77. Jefferies moved its target up to $53 but kept a Hold rating. The consensus analyst target sits at $43.45, well below where MRNA trades today.

Sixteen Hold ratings dominate the Street. Insider transactions have tilted toward selling, with 75 recent transactions on the sell side. Analysts see real flu revenue starting no earlier than 2027.

Beyond Vaccines

Moderna restructured its operating model around three commercial franchises in vaccines, oncology, and rare diseases. Shares jumped roughly 6.3% on that news alone. Moderna’s high came when it produced its Covid-19 vaccine, topping out at $497 in August 2021.

A June 25 Science Day then put the company’s broader pipeline on display, covering in vivo CAR-T and T-cell engager programs across oncology and autoimmune disease.

Plans to invest in German manufacturing facilities, including sites BioNTech plans to close, pushed MRNA up 8% to 12% across several sessions as traders read the move as a long-term capacity bet ahead of a 2027-2028 wave of launches.