Meta to develop prediction markets app called "Arena"

Meta owner Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team at the tech giant to develop a standalone smartphone app called Arena that would let users predict outcomes on politics, sports, entertainment and world events, the New York Times has reported.

The app would operate independently from Meta’s existing platforms, according to employees familiar with the project who spoke to the Times. Arena is described as experimental but seen as a top priority inside the company.

Arena brings a new wager system

Arena would not involve the use of in-app actual money when it launches. It is expected that users would instead earn and spend points in a system resembling video game rewards. However, the reports mention that Meta remains considerably open to subsequently introducing cash-based betting.

The move puts the tech giant on a collision course with Polymarket, Kalshi, and a growing roster of trading platforms that have pushed into the style of forecasting based on real-life events over the past two years. Polymarket gained mainstream attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when billions of dollars in volume flowed through its crypto-based platform as traders bet on electoral outcomes.

Since then, Coinbase, Kraken and Robinhood have all explored or launched prediction market products of their own.

Meta’s interest in prediction markets is not new

Meta had previously launched a product called Forecast in 2020 that invited users to predict current events and emerging trends during the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic. The product was shut down by the company in 2022.

Arena looks like part of a bigger push by Zuckerberg to develop new standalone apps tied to emerging online social behavior. The company is also testing a separate app called Meta Photos that would use artificial intelligence to generate new types of media, according to the Times report.

More than 3.56 billion people use at least one Meta app daily, and the company plans to funnel users from its existing social networks toward Arena, according to the reports.

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