Ripple Price Forecast: XRP heads toward $1.00 as risk-off mood persists
- XRP remains under pressure, trading around $1.15 on Thursday, weighed down by geopolitical pressure and uncertainty.
- XRP institutional investors scaled back their risk exposure, with ETF outflows totaling $5 million on Wednesday.
- XRP faces a weakening technical structure amid an oversold RSI and a MACD sell signal.
Ripple (XRP) edges lower, trading around $1.15 at the time of writing on Thursday, its lowest price since February 6. The cross-border money remittance token is extending the sell-off for the fifth consecutive day, reflecting persistent headwinds from ongoing geopolitical tensions and investor uncertainty.
XRP ETF outflows reinforce bearish outlook
Institutional interest in XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) took a negative turn, with roughly $5 million in outflows on Wednesday. According to SoSoValue data, this marks the first outflow since April 30.
Cumulative inflows into XRP investment products stand at $1.42 billion, while average assets under management hover around $1.03 billion, underscoring sustained institutional interest despite recent market volatility.
Should risk aversion continue and institutional investors further trim their exposure, increased supply pressure could accelerate XRP’s decline below the tentative $1.00 support level.
“Tensions between the United States and Iran continue to generate concern across global financial markets, triggering recurring episodes of risk aversion,” Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, said in a written statement. “In such environments, investors typically reduce exposure to more volatile assets, such as cryptocurrencies, while favoring more defensive positions,” he added.
Sentiment across the crypto market remains significantly subdued, as reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, holding at 12 in Extreme Fear territory on Thursday, down from 50 in May.
Price analysis: XRP stuck in a persistent drawdown
XRP trades at $1.15, holding well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping the near-term bias bearish as rallies struggle against a dense band of overhead supply.
The SuperTrend line at $1.34 also sits above spot, reinforcing a downside-skewed structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 22 on the daily chart suggests deeply oversold conditions that may slow, but not yet reverse, the prevailing downtrend, especially with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram in negative territory.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the SuperTrend barrier around $1.34, with the 50-day EMA nearby at $1.36 forming the next cap if a corrective bounce materializes. Further up, the 100-day EMA at roughly $1.44 and the more distant 200-day EMA near $1.64 outline subsequent resistance tiers that would need to be reclaimed to ease the broader bearish pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
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