Spain’s Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily bans prediction markets Kalshi, Polymarket

Spain’s Consumer Rights Ministry has placed a temporary ban on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket for not having gambling licenses to operate in the country. 

Spain is among several European nations that have banned prediction markets, classifying them as a form of gambling. The temporary ban in Spain will last for about 3-4 months as regulators finalize their investigations. 

Spanish authorities have also noted that unauthorized operators do not implement safety measures, such as strict identity verification and access controls. These platforms also lack control access measures for self-excluded individuals or those who are legally banned from gambling.

France previously blocked these platforms due to similar concerns about event-based gambling without proper licensing.

Spanish ISPs implement network-level blocks

Spanish internet service providers (ISPs) are enforcing government-ordered blocks to implement coordinated network-level restrictions. The Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs, and the 2030 Agenda has issued an official order that the Directorate General for Gambling Regulation (DGOJ) is using to compel Spanish ISPs to cut off local access. 

Major national telecommunications providers are also expected to deploy specific protocols to effect the temporary block. These providers include Vodafone España, Telefonica (Movistar), and Orange España.

The ISPs’ Domain Name System (DNS) servers will redirect requests when users in Spain attempt to access the Kalshi and Polymarket domains. Notably, traffic will be redirected to a government landing page displaying an official advisory notice, rather than to the platforms’ actual IP addresses.

ISPs will also block traffic at the network layer to prevent users from switching to DNS servers such as Cloudflare or Google DNS to bypass DNS blocks. The IP addresses linked to Kalshi and Polymarket will be added to routing blacklists. All incoming and outgoing data packets trying to communicate with those two destinations will be automatically dropped. 

Additionally, major Spanish ISPs are expected to use DPI tools to monitor packet headers in real time. The ISPs’ hardware will detect and block the connections when users try to reach the specific content delivery networks (CDNs) or API endpoints used by the two prediction markets. 

Regulators around the world rush to control prediction markets 

Regulators around the world are rushing to gain control of prediction markets as the sector surpasses $127 billion in total global trading volume. These platforms have completely blurred the lines between speculative sportsbooks and financial derivatives. There is a mismatch in how governments and innovators define the use of these platforms, arising from differences in how they define them. 

Meanwhile, operators and advocates view prediction markets as powerful tools for societal forecasting by leveraging “the wisdom of crowds” through financial incentives. These platforms produce real-time, accurate data on global events that outperform traditional polling. 

Proponents also argue that these prediction markets function like financial markets. They allow institutions to hedge real-world risks such as policy changes, geopolitical shifts, or inflation.

Sovereign governments are increasingly viewing these platforms as a source of “consumer harm.” Regulators are classifying bets on real-world outcomes as gambling because these contracts do not involve a stake in value-producing assets, as in traditional equity markets. 

Spain is among the countries arguing that omitting compulsory gambling licenses allows platforms to bypass key protections against money laundering, gambling addiction, and the participation of minors. The clash has divided international regulators into two camps: containment vs structural integration.

On one hand, the U.S. CFTC is shifting its approach, moving away from complete bans toward classifying event contracts as regulated “swaps.” The agency is also actively enacting anti-insider trading standards. 

On the other hand, the EU lacks a unified framework, leaving jurisdictions to enforce localized gambling blocks. Crypto-linked platforms in the region are also facing upcoming pressure under the EU’s MiCA market abuse regimes. 

Global bodies are growing increasingly uneasy over individuals using non-public information to profit from high-stakes geopolitical crises, corporate secrets, or military conflicts. Localized regulatory blocks often prove difficult to enforce because many of these platforms run decentralized code on public blockchains. Government ministries across the world are forced to target intermediaries such as VPN providers and local domain registries to control access.

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