Brent: Hormuz risk premium and Asia FX – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan notes that negotiations around the US-Iran conflict and developments in the Strait of Hormuz remain a key driver for global markets. He highlights a sharp Brent crude spike toward $97 before a partial pullback, as well as fragile ceasefire dynamics. These Oil moves form the backdrop for Asia FX performance and risk sentiment.

Hormuz tensions drive Brent volatility

"A key driver across all markets remains the negotiations around US-Iran conflict and whether there is a deal reached."

"Over the weekend, the two sides exchanged revised proposals but failed to reach a breakthrough, with renewed military strikes — the US conducting what it described as "self-defence" strikes on Iranian radar and drone facilities, and Iran's IRGC targeting a US air base — further straining the fragile ceasefire."

"On Monday, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Tehran had suspended negotiations via intermediaries, citing Israel's escalating offensive in Lebanon."

"What helped markets recover as we speak this morning was announcements by Trump that in his conversations with both Israel Prime minister Netanyahu and Hezbollah that they both agreed to stop shooting, although Israel’s leader did not describe it in such sweeping terms."

"Brent crude surged as much as ~6% intraday to near $97/barrel before closing around 4% higher."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)