USD/JPY tumbles as BoJ rate hike rumors, overshadows strong US data

Source Fxstreet
  • USD/JPY ends Tuesday down, trading at 152.84, amid BoJ rate hike rumors.
  • Strong US JOLTS data and higher-than-expected Consumer Confidence failed to boost USD/JPY.
  • BoJ reportedly considering a rate hike to 0.25% and reducing JGB purchases, adding market uncertainty.

The USD/JPY finished Tuesday’s session with losses amid rumors that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike rates on Wednesday’s monetary policy decision. This headline overshadowed a strong US jobs report in the United States (US), reinforcing a tight labor market. As Wednesday’s Asian session begins, the major trades at 152.84, virtually unchanged.

BoJ rate hike speculation eclipses robust US economic indicators.

Wall Street ended Tuesday’s session mixed after US JOLTS data was better than expected. June figures came at 8.184 million, less than the upwardly revised May number of 8.23 million but exceeding forecasts of 8 million. Further data showed that July’s Consumer Confidence revealed by the Conference Board (CB) exceeded estimates of 99.7, coming to 100.3 above the downwardly revised June figures of 97.8.

Although the data was positive and kept the USD/JPY at around 155.00, Japanese press reports revealed that BoJ is considering raising its overnight interest rates to around 0.25%, according to Nikkei.

The article also mentioned that the BoJ would likely decide by how much and at what pace it will reduce monthly purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). Market participants estimate the BoJ will cut bond-buying in half to around $19.5 billion US Dollars by the end of fiscal 2025.

The BoJ will also reveal the outlook report, which will update Real GDP and Core CPI forecasts. Even though the BoJ’s decision was leaked, a Reuters poll showed that 24% of economists expect a 15-bps hike, while 76% expect no change. Nevertheless, money markets show odds of 38% for an increase in rates.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY is set to extend its losses, yet traders will need to decisively clear the October 21, 2022, high of 151.94, which could pave the way for further downside. Once surpassed, the 151.00 figure would be up for grabs, ahead of the latest cycle low of 146.48, the March 11 low. On the flip side, if USD/JPY climbs past 153.00, it could rally and challenge 154.00.

Japanese Yen PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.00% -0.01% 0.09% 0.00% -0.02% -0.00% 0.01%
EUR -0.00%   0.00% 0.10% -0.01% -0.03% 0.00% 0.01%
GBP 0.01% -0.00%   0.08% -0.01% -0.04% 0.00% 0.01%
JPY -0.09% -0.10% -0.08%   -0.04% -0.12% -0.11% -0.05%
CAD -0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.04%   -0.04% -0.00% 0.00%
AUD 0.02% 0.03% 0.04% 0.12% 0.04%   0.03% 0.03%
NZD 0.00% -0.01% -0.01% 0.11% 0.00% -0.03%   0.00%
CHF -0.01% -0.01% -0.01% 0.05% -0.00% -0.03% -0.01%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Japanese Yen rallies to February 18 high as upbeat wage data and GDP lift BoJ hike betsThe USD/JPY pair declines for the second straight day – also marking the fourth day of a fall in the previous five – and sinks to its lowest level since February 18, around mid-153.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday.
Author  FXStreet
Sep 08, Tue
The USD/JPY pair declines for the second straight day – also marking the fourth day of a fall in the previous five – and sinks to its lowest level since February 18, around mid-153.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday.
placeholder
US dollar clings to nine-week lows near 98.4 as Brent nears $100 and the yen hits a seven-month high — five events to watch todayThe dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
Author  Eric Nkando
Sep 09, Wed
The dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
placeholder
Brent holds above $100 as tanker attacks tighten supply — but four forces are capping the rallyBrent crude is holding above $100 a barrel for a second session, its first close above the level since late July, as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz squeeze an already tight physical market. Yet the rally has been gradual: 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output is still shut in, diesel is at a record, and forecasts now range from $74 to $100.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 10, Thu
Brent crude is holding above $100 a barrel for a second session, its first close above the level since late July, as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz squeeze an already tight physical market. Yet the rally has been gradual: 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output is still shut in, diesel is at a record, and forecasts now range from $74 to $100.
placeholder
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 11, Fri
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: PPI and Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns, Can CPI Change Gold's Direction?As of the Asian session on September 11, gold prices (XAUUSD) remained in weak consolidation today after dropping sharply to near $4,300 on Thursday, with the latest price trading around
Author  TradingKey
Sep 11, Fri
As of the Asian session on September 11, gold prices (XAUUSD) remained in weak consolidation today after dropping sharply to near $4,300 on Thursday, with the latest price trading around
Related Instrument
goTop
quote