Euro: Testing support against US Dollar with ECB risk – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists highlight that EUR/USD remains under pressure after slipping below its 200-day moving average in May, with spot trading near a two‑month low. The pair is holding just above the April trough around 1.1500, with nearby options expiries and European Central Bank (ECB) communication seen as key drivers for whether support at 1.1500 holds or a deeper decline unfolds.

Pair hovers near critical support

"EUR/USD has extended its pullback after slipping below the 200-DMA in May. It has tentatively held above the April trough near 1.1500."

"Should a short-term bounce materialize, the recent pivot high around 1.1645/1.1675, which coincides with the 200-DMA, may act as an important resistance."

"A break below 1.1500 may deepen the decline towards the next projections at 1.1440 and the lower bound of the multi-month range near 1.1410/1.1390."

"With all the uncertainty in mind, the ECB is unlikely to start the firing gun today on a tightening cycle. Three hikes by early 2027 is aggressive. Market reaction will depend on the new inflation projections and underlying technical assumptions."

"A split decision and olive branch to the council doves (no pre-commitment) can in theory bull steepen the curve and pressure EUR/USD towards 1.15."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)