Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low vs USD; bears turn cautious amid intervention fears
- USD/JPY is seen consolidating the previous day’s move up to over a one-month top.
- Intervention fears offer some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair.
- Mideast concerns underpin the USD and should limit the downside for spot prices.
The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Tuesday and trades around the 159.70 area, or over a one-month high touched the previous day. However, a combination of diverging forces acts as a headwind for spot prices, warranting caution before positioning for an extension of the recent well-established positive move witnessed over the past four weeks or so.
The US Dollar (USD) preserves the previous day's gains amid the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Furthermore, economic concerns stemming from the Middle East tensions continue to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. However, speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets and cap the upside.
US President Donald Trump asserted that peace talks were ongoing with Iran, and said that he will have an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week. Iran, however, warned that it would suspend negotiations with the US following fresh strikes and an Israeli military operation in Lebanon. This, in turn, keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, which continues to benefit the Greenback's reserve currency status and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel concerns over inflation and expectations of elevated interest rates. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning over a 50% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by at least 25 basis points (bps) in 2026. The Bank of Japan (BoJ), on the other hand, is expected to hike interest rates at the upcoming June 15-16 policy meeting. This might further contribute to keeping a lid on the USD/JPY pair.
Market participants now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of JOLTS Job Openings – for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This, along with further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, might continue to infuse volatility across the global financial markets and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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