Canadian Dollar: Range signals possible reversal against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Source Fxstreet
Scotiabank analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady against the US Dollar (USD) near 1.3800, with fair value for USD/CAD estimated at 1.3672. They highlight that technicals are showing a stalled rally near the 200-day moving average.
CAD seen steady
"The return to normalized market conditions should provide for some directional movement following Monday’s holiday related consolidation."
"Our FV estimate for USD/CAD is currently at 1.3672, suggesting stronger fundamental levels for the CAD."
"Bullish/neutral—USD/CAD’s latest rally looks to have stalled around the 200 day MA (1.3812), with intraday price action showing a clear flat range roughly bound between 1.3800 and 1.3820."
"The stalling has been echoed in the momentum indicators, and we note a slight moderation in the RSI back toward the lower 60s. A bearish reversal from here would immediately target 1.3750, a level that roughly corresponds to the 50 day MA (1.3751). To the upside, we see limited resistance ahead of 1.3900."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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