AUD/USD remains on the defensive below 0.6450, investors await Australian CPI data

FXStreet
Updated Apr 22, 2024 24:30
Mitrade

■  AUD/USD holds below 0.6450 in Monday’s early Asian session. 

■  The hawkish comments from Fed officials in recent weeks have lifted the Greenback. 

■  The moderate Australian inflation data and the continuously tight labour market could prompt RBA rate cuts this year. 


The AUD/USD pair remains on the defensive near 0.6420 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Federal Reserve (Fed) media blackout went into effect at midnight Friday. Nonetheless, the US central bank has delivered hawkish messages in recent weeks and markets expect the first cut in September. 

On Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that inflation progress had “stalled and the Fed’s current restrictive policy is appropriate. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, one of the most hawkish members of the FOMC, stated that the US central bank wouldn’t cut rates until the end of the year. The chance of a June cut has fallen below 20% and the odds of a July cut have dropped below 50%. A September cut is not fully priced in, with the probability falling below 90%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

The hawkish stance from Fed officials in recent weeks provides some support to the US Dollar (USD) and creates a headwind for the AUD/USD pair. Investors will take more cues from the US inflation data this week. The final reading of the US March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be due on Friday. Headline PCE inflation is estimated to rise to 2.6% YoY, while the core is expected to fall a tick to 2.7% YoY. 

On the Aussie front, inflation is still above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target but continues to moderate in line with the RBA’s latest forecasts. The continuously tight labor market could prompt those calling for an RBA rate reduction before the end of the year, which might drag the Australian Dollar (AUD) lower against the Greenback. The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday will be a closely watched event. Investors may push back the expected timing of rate cuts if the inflation data is hotter than expected, which might cap the downside of the AUD/USD pair. 


AUD/USD


Overview
Today last price 0.6424
Today Daily Change 0.0005
Today Daily Change % 0.08
Today daily open 0.6419
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6512
Daily SMA50 0.6534
Daily SMA100 0.6592
Daily SMA200 0.6534
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6433
Previous Daily Low 0.6362
Previous Weekly High 0.6493
Previous Weekly Low 0.6362
Previous Monthly High 0.6667
Previous Monthly Low 0.6478
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6389
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6406
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6377
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6334
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6306
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6447
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6475
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6518

* The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only.  This article should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.

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