WTI Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near $90.50 as technical breakdown comes into play

• WTI declines after Trump announced a two-week suspension of military operations against Iran.

• An intraday breakdown through the 200-hour SMA and ascending channel support favors bears.

• Any meaningful recovery attempt might now be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – plummets to a nearly two-week trough during the Asian session on Wednesday in reaction to news that the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The commodity, however, trims a part of heavy intraday losses and currently trades around mid-$90.00s, still down over 10% for the day.

From a technical perspective, an intraday breakdown below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the lower end of a two-week-old ascending channel could be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 18 reflects stretched downside conditions, assisting Crude Oil prices to find some support at the $86.00 mark and stage a modest recovery.

Nevertheless, the aforementioned setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the downside. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds below the zero line with the MACD line under its signal line and a negative histogram, suggesting persistent bearish momentum. Hence, any meaningful recovery attempt is more likely to get sold into.

Meanwhile, initial resistance emerges at the $91.50–$92.00 area, where intraday supply has recently formed, ahead of stronger resistance at the 200-period SMA near $98, which aligns with the broken channel base and strengthens this zone as a key barrier on rebounds. A move above $98 would be needed to challenge the former channel region toward $96–$100 and weaken the immediate bearish bias.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the psychological $90.00 handle, with a break lower opening the way toward $88.50 and then $86.00 as subsequent bearish targets if selling pressure extends. Any stabilization above $90.00 would only signal consolidation while the price remains capped below the 200-period SMA.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

WTI 1-hour chart