Russia’s CBDC could bring $3B a year, but banks may pay the price

The digital ruble is expected to bring Russia’s economy some $3 billion or more annually in the first five years of its introduction, according to a new estimate presented in Moscow.

While banks are set to initially lose billions of rubles due to the digital cash, businesses will benefit right off the bat, claim Russian analysts trying to predict the effects of the new form of national fiat.

Russian digital currency to benefit businesses, hurt banks

Bank of Russia’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) will generate up to 260 billion rubles (almost $3.3 billion) a year for the country’s economy by 2031, according to a forecast produced by the Moscow-based National Rating Agency (NRA).

Its analysis indicates that in the first few years of scaling up the digital ruble, the economic effect for Russian companies will be 30 to 50 billion rubles annually (over $600 million), while the same for banks will be in the range 5-8 billion rubles (under $100 million).

In the beginning, bank revenues may suffer in the absence of cashback and amid an outflow of customers to new service providers, the authors of the study noted in a report seen by Russia’s official TASS news agency.

In a pessimistic scenario, the banking system as a whole may lose 45-95 billion rubles (nearly $1.2 billion) in terms of unpaid fees, starting from 2027. That amounts to around 8-10% of the total net profits of Russian banks.

From 2029, the effect of the introduction of the digital ruble will be more evenly distributed across various segments of the economy, according to the document, quoted on Monday.

Costs for the CBDC’s tech integration are estimated at an average of 200-300 million rubles per bank, and total investments that the banking sector needs to make are 30-50 billion rubles (approx. $370 – $620 million). NRA researchers summed up:

“For the 2029-2031 timeframe, effects for the economy may grow to 200-260 billion rubles per year, while effects for banks may approach 40-50 billion rubles, and they will be distributed more evenly throughout the economy.”

The NRA expects that once the digital ruble is fully implemented, banks will be able to make between 17 and 61 billion rubles ($760 million) in additional income in the form of commissions on alternative products based on smart contracts, for instance.

Savings in customer acquisition costs will come from exploiting new opportunities for targeted marketing, optimization of interbank transactions through the Bank of Russia’s infrastructure, and development of corporate liquidity management services.

NRA experts warn about digital ruble risks

The digital ruble has been under development for quite some time, but so far, only a limited number of authorized users have been allowed to participate in a pilot project that has been going on for almost two years.

Following a recent call from President Vladimir Putin for mass adoption of the Russian CBDC, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced in June a new schedule for its introduction in stages, starting from Sept. 1, 2026, which was later approved by lawmakers in the State Duma.

Despite the authorities’ eagerness to facilitate its widespread use, around half of Russian citizens, and even some officials like the head of Russia’s largest bank, German Gref, remain skeptical about the need for a government-issued digital coin.

The NRA analysts also point to some of the risks associated with the initiative, including more expensive financing, as a result of potential transfer of significant funds to digital ruble accounts at the CBR, as well as growing pressure on traditional payment services.

Development of technologies like quantum computing may pose another threat, they added, as these may be used to create new tools for fraud, crack security codes, and rewrite transaction history.

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