Tesla and Meta report this week — what will move their shares?

Tesla and Meta report earnings this week, but investors will be looking for very different things from each.

Tesla has already reported 486,532 vehicle deliveries for the third quarter, leaving margins and profitability as the bigger unanswered questions. Investors also want evidence that robotaxis, autonomy and Optimus are progressing quickly enough to justify a valuation increasingly tied to businesses beyond electric vehicles.

Meta faces almost the opposite challenge. Its advertising business is growing strongly, but enormous spending on AI infrastructure means investors increasingly want proof that AI is improving monetisation rather than simply increasing costs.

For CFD traders, those expectations can matter more than whether either company simply beats headline earnings forecasts. Guidance on margins, spending and future growth can quickly change how the market values both stocks.

Tesla investors already know vehicle demand held up strongly during the quarter. Deliveries reached 486,532 vehicles, up from 480,126 in the previous quarter, while energy-storage deployments climbed to 13.7 GWh.

The bigger question is how profitable those sales were.

Tesla’s traditional vehicle business continues to face pressure from pricing, competition, and heavy investment in future products. Company-compiled analyst estimates point to around $28.3 billion in quarterly revenue, including roughly $20.3 billion from automotive operations and $3.7 billion from energy generation and storage.

Automotive margins could therefore be more important than the delivery number itself. Improving profitability would give Tesla more financial flexibility to fund its increasingly ambitious investments, while another weak margin result could reinforce concerns that the core car business is carrying too much of the burden.

That matters because a significant part of Tesla’s investment case now depends on businesses that are still developing.

Tesla has continued pushing beyond conventional vehicle manufacturing.

Its robotaxi service has expanded across several US markets, Cybercab production has started, and the company expects Optimus production to begin later this year. Full Self-Driving subscriptions have also continued growing.

Those projects offer potential growth well beyond selling Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, but they also require substantial investment before meaningful profits arrive.

That makes progress updates particularly important. Investors will be listening for evidence that robotaxi deployment is scaling, autonomous technology is improving, and Cybercab and Optimus production remain on schedule.

The strongest result for Tesla would therefore combine healthier automotive margins with clearer progress in these newer businesses.

If vehicle profitability weakens while autonomy or robotics timelines slip, the gap between Tesla’s current earnings and the future growth embedded in its valuation could become harder to defend.

For traders, that creates several potential catalysts within the same earnings report. The headline numbers matter, but comments around margins, robotaxis and production timelines could ultimately have a greater effect on the share price.

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Meta enters earnings with much stronger momentum in its core business.

Second-quarter revenue rose 28% year-on-year to $60.8 billion, while advertising revenue increased 27%. Ad impressions climbed 14%, and the average price per advertisement rose 12%.

Those numbers show that Facebook and Instagram remain powerful earnings engines. The question now is whether Meta can keep that growth running fast enough to support its accelerating AI investment.

Meta expects quarterly revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion, but capital expenditure has become almost as important as sales growth. The company expects to spend between $130 billion and $145 billion on capital expenditure during 2026 as it builds data centres, buys computing hardware and expands AI capacity.

Second-quarter capex alone reached $31.1 billion.

That gives this earnings report a fairly simple investor test: is AI helping revenue rise quickly enough to justify how much Meta is spending on it?

Meta does not need to wait for a completely new AI business to start generating returns.

AI already plays a major role in deciding which posts users see, which advertisements are displayed, and how advertising campaigns are targeted across Facebook and Instagram. If those systems improve engagement and advertising performance, AI can strengthen a business that already generates tens of billions of dollars each quarter.

That makes advertising growth one of the clearest ways to judge whether Meta’s investment is paying off.

Investors will be watching whether impressions, ad pricing, and overall advertising revenue continue growing strongly. Continued gains would support the argument that AI is improving Meta’s existing business rather than simply building technology for an uncertain future.

Newer products could add another layer. Meta has been expanding its AI ecosystem and pushing further into assistants, generative tools, and new ways for businesses to interact with customers.

Those initiatives do not yet need to become enormous standalone businesses, but management needs to give investors confidence that rising infrastructure spending is producing commercial opportunities.

Strong advertising growth combined with credible new revenue paths would make Meta’s AI spending easier to justify. Slower growth alongside another increase in capex could have the opposite effect.

The scale of Meta’s investment is what makes this earnings report particularly important.

Second-quarter operating expenses jumped 55% year-on-year, while free cash flow fell to just $784 million as capital spending accelerated. Some of that increase reflected legal and restructuring charges, but AI infrastructure remains a major driver of investment.

Meta still has substantial financial firepower. It ended the second quarter with more than $90 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, and operating cash flow remained above $31 billion.

The concern is not whether Meta can afford to invest. It is how efficiently that investment produces additional profit.

That distinction could determine how investors react to guidance. A large increase in planned AI spending may be accepted if advertising growth remains strong and management can point to better monetisation. The same spending increase could become a negative catalyst if revenue momentum weakens.

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The two companies arrive at earnings from very different positions.

Tesla needs its traditional business to provide enough profitability to support a much larger future story. Cars and energy storage generate most of the revenue today, while robotaxis, autonomy and robotics account for much of the excitement around tomorrow.

Meta already has a highly profitable core business. Its challenge is proving that the cash generated by advertising is being invested in AI at returns that will eventually strengthen earnings rather than permanently inflate costs.

That means a conventional earnings beat may not settle either debate.

Tesla could beat revenue expectations but still fall if automotive margins disappoint or robotaxi milestones slip. Meta could report another strong advertising quarter but come under pressure if its capex forecast rises sharply without clearer evidence of additional monetisation.

For traders, the important comparison is therefore between what each company delivers and the growth assumptions investors have already built into the share price.

For Tesla, automotive margins should be near the top of the list. Deliveries are already known, so the earnings report can show whether those vehicles were sold profitably and whether the core business is generating enough cash to support Tesla’s expanding investment program.

Comments around Cybercab, robotaxi deployment, FSD and Optimus could be just as influential because those businesses increasingly shape the long-term valuation.

Energy deserves attention as well. Tesla deployed a record 13.7 GWh of storage products during the quarter, and continued growth could help diversify earnings away from passenger vehicles.

For Meta, advertising growth remains the clearest measure of underlying strength. Traders should compare that with capital expenditure and future spending guidance to see whether revenue is keeping pace with AI investment.

Any additional detail on how AI is improving advertising, engagement, or generating new revenue could strengthen the growth case.

In both stocks, guidance may therefore produce a larger move than the headline EPS number.

Earnings reactions increasingly depend on the quality of growth rather than whether a company clears consensus by a few cents.

Tesla and Meta demonstrate that particularly clearly because much of their valuations depends on future opportunities.

For Tesla, investors are trying to value autonomy, robotaxis, and robotics before those businesses make a major contribution to profit. For Meta, investors are trying to determine how much value hundreds of billions of dollars of AI investment will eventually produce.

Management commentary can therefore change expectations quickly.

Tesla does not need a weak quarter for its shares to fall if future margins or product timelines disappoint. Meta does not need an advertising slowdown if investors decide its spending outlook has become too aggressive.

Earnings season is ultimately about expectations, and these two companies carry some of the largest expectations in the US market.

Trading Tesla and Meta with Mitrade

Major earnings announcements can produce sharp moves as investors rapidly reassess revenue growth, margins, spending and company guidance.

Through Mitrade, eligible Australian clients can use CFDs to take long positions if they expect Tesla or Meta shares to rise or short positions if they expect them to fall. That provides exposure to share-price movements without owning the underlying stock.

Stop-loss and take-profit orders can be used to define exit levels, while pending orders allow traders to wait for a selected price before opening a position. Earnings periods can produce price gaps and rapid volatility, however, so orders may not always execute at the requested level.

Accounts can be funded in AUD, and a demo account is available for testing strategies with virtual funds before committing capital.

Mitrade is regulated in Australia by ASIC. Share CFDs are leveraged products, meaning both potential gains and losses can be magnified.

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