EUR/USD trades on the back foot on Thursday as the expanding war in the Middle East pushes Oil prices higher and fuels hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, boosting demand for the US Dollar (USD).

The Pound Sterling drops by over 0.40% against the Greenback as risk aversion weighs on most G8 currencies amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict and growing speculation of an extended US campaign against Iran. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3313 after reaching a daily high at 1.3393.

USD/JPY trades above163.90 on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following significantly better-than-expected United States (US) labor market data.

The Euro (EUR) trades under pressure against the British Pound (GBP) as traders assess the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest monetary policy announcement.

Commerzbank strategist Michael Pfister argues that Banxico’s recent rate cuts were broadly justified by moderating inflation and Mexico’s weakening economy, leaving little reason for the central bank to tighten policy despite markets pricing in roughly three rate hikes.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade at historic lows, with USD/JPY pressing past year-to-date highs above the 163.00 handle, as a renewed surge in global Oil and Natural Gas prices has dealt a severe blow to the net-energy-importing Japanese economy. 

USD/CAD rebounds on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum amid rising tensions in the Middle East and growing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, while traders show a muted reaction to Canadian Retail Sales data.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1385 on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights the strong year-to-date performance of the Australian Dollar (AUD), supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance and Australia’s commodity-linked profile.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes the Euro is stabilizing ahead of the ECB decision, with improving spot flow and hedge unwinding supporting Eurozone assets. However, forward and swaps demand remain weak, limiting conviction.

The British Pound (GBP) consolidates losses below 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, on track for a 0.6% weekly decline, following a reversal from 1.3558 highs last week.

The Euro (EUR) is giving away previous gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, as investors position for the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to keep its 37.00% rate unchanged, with geopolitical tensions, Oil above $90 and tariff changes limiting scope to absorb higher energy costs.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes AUD/USD is consolidating near 0.7000 after strong Australia employment data. Solid June job gains keep Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike expectations alive, with cash rate futures now virtually fully pricing a move to 4.60% by year‑end.

USD/CHF extends its gains for the fourth successive day, trading around 0.8150 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after recovering its daily losses amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States (US)-and Iran.

The Euro (EUR) remains steady above 1.1400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, showing a surprising resilience to the surging Oil prices and the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that rising Oil and natural gas prices are pressuring the Japanese Yen (JPY), with USD/JPY hitting fresh year-to-date highs above 163.00.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights a strong Australian labor market, with 76,000 jobs added and participation back near historic highs, prompting markets to raise the implied probability of an RBA hike to 30%.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the NZD/USD pair dipping below 0.5800, after being rejected at the 0.5875 area earlier in the week.

Societe Generale strategists expect a 25bp rate hike in South Africa after a sharp June inflation surprise, with Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 5.0% and core at 4.1%.

AUD/USD holds ground after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7000 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair remains steady as the Australian Dollar (AUD) moves little following the release of improved Australian employment data.

USD/JPY inches higher after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 163.20 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency pair is holding a clear bullish bias as spot remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to leave the 37% repo rate unchanged, while operationally signaling readiness to normalise the corridor and re-enable weekly repo once war risks ease.

The GBP/JPY cross extends its directionless price moves through the early European session on Thursday, though it holds above the weekly low and currently trades around the 218.15-218.20 region.

ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the ECB to leave rates unchanged but deliver a hawkish hold, with Middle East tensions and rising European gas prices keeping hawks in control.

The Euro (EUR) appreciates for the sixth consecutive day against the British Pound on Thursday, with bulls testing last week’s highs at the 0.8645 area. The Sterling remains offered across the board as investors wonder how the new cabinet will fund its spending pledges.

The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally higher to near 1.3387 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair edges higher as the US Dollar drops despite surging oil prices in the wake of escalating Middle East energy supply risks.

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading practically flat, a few cents below the $60.00 level on Thursday, with upside attempts capped as US Treasury yields jump to fresh highs.

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect GBP/USD to consolidate intraday between 1.3350 and 1.3400 after a modest pullback from recent lows.

The Euro (EUR) is up 0.15% at around 1.1430 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair rises as the major currency outperforms its peers ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement at 12:15 GMT.