What SpaceX's Lockup Expiry Could Mean for Anthropic's IPO Strategy

The Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) initial public offering (IPO) was record-setting, raising $75 billion from investors. Add in the underwriters' overallotment, and the total balloons to over $85 billion. That's a big draw for other closely followed private companies, such as Anthropic, as it suggests they could collect a huge payday, too. But the nine insider lockup expirations scheduled for SpaceX could muddy the waters. Here's why.

Insiders want to get rich, too

In the technology sector, stock options are usually a big deal. They are used to lure employees and keep them around, giving these insiders a stake at the table as the company grows. Often, early investors in tech companies have large stock holdings, as well. The hope is that when a private company goes public, insider shares will suddenly become more valuable and more liquid. In other words, insiders are looking for a big payday.

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That's just how things work on Wall Street. However, SpaceX was a massive IPO. Investors were happy to buy it, but there are only so many giant IPOs that can happen in a short period of time. Artificial intelligence company Anthropic is preparing an IPO expected to rival SpaceX's. Given the success of the SpaceX IPO, Anthropic going public right now would normally be a great idea. Only there's an insider wrinkle to consider.

SpaceX insiders want to sell their shares so they can make some money on the IPO, too. There are often limits around insider selling in IPOs. With SpaceX, there were nine insider expiration periods. There will be new expirations through the end of 2026. Each time a new block of stock opens up, the market potentially has to absorb more shares of SpaceX.

SpaceX could be hit, but so could Anthropic

The risk for SpaceX is that the stock falls as new shares hit the market. That's actually pretty typical. But the risk for Anthropic is that the appetite for other giant IPOs is reduced because investors only have just so much money to spread around. The more shares of SpaceX that insiders sell, the less money that could be available to buy Anthropic.

Now add in the popular backlash against AI, and Anthropic's IPO headwinds get even larger because the potential pool of IPO buyers could be smaller than hoped. None of this is meant to suggest that Anthropic won't have a giant IPO, only that the path to a successful IPO may not be as easy as it once seemed.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.