Anthropic Races Toward $2 Trillion IPO: Can Zoom Stock Rise Too?

TradingKey - On August 17, Eastern Time, Bloomberg reported that as of the end of July, Anthropic's annualized revenue reached $65 billion, growing more than sevenfold from the end of last year. According to a Reuters report on August 16, the company expects its 2028 revenue to reach $190 billion to $200 billion.

The continued acceleration in revenue provides critical support for its IPO plans. Anthropic could list on the U.S. stock market as early as late September or early October this year, with valuation expectations reaching $2 trillion, potentially surpassing SpaceX to become the largest IPO in history.

The beneficiaries of this IPO are not only Anthropic's early venture capital firms, but also Zoom (ZM), which established its position through its strategic investment arm (Zoom Ventures).

Zoom Ventures participated in Anthropic's investment as early as 2023 and established a strategic partnership with it. Zoom did not disclose the specific investment amount at the time, but market data shows that Zoom has cumulatively invested approximately $97 million, including about $51 million in 2023 and a subsequent follow-on investment of about $46 million.

According to regulatory filings, based on Anthropic's $380 billion valuation in its Series G financing in February this year, the book value of Zoom's stake is approximately $1.27 billion, representing an initial investment return of about 25 times.

If Anthropic ultimately goes public at a $2 trillion valuation, without considering further financing, IPO share issuances, and other dilution factors for now, a simple calculation based on valuation proportions suggests that the book value of Zoom's stake could rise to approximately $6.68 billion, with the actual figure depending on the IPO offering structure and subsequent dilution.

For Zoom, with a market capitalization in the $30 billion range, this is no longer a negligible investment gain. Consequently, the question arises: Can Anthropic's IPO drive a rise in Zoom's stock price?

[Source: TradingView]

How Much Value Can Anthropic's Equity Investment Bring to Zoom?

Currently, the Anthropic stake has become an attractive part of Zoom's balance sheet.

Based on its current carrying value of $1.27 billion, this asset accounts for approximately 4% of Zoom's current market capitalization; if Anthropic goes public at a $2 trillion valuation in the future, the theoretical value of Zoom's stake could reach approximately $6.68 billion, representing a significantly larger share of Zoom's current market cap.

More importantly, this means that when evaluating Zoom, investors cannot look solely at its traditional video conferencing and enterprise collaboration businesses, but must also consider the value of the AI assets it holds.

Following Anthropic's IPO, Zoom's stake may still face lock-up periods, share-sale restrictions, and dilution from subsequent financing rounds and the IPO issuance itself. Therefore, how much value can ultimately be realized will depend on Anthropic's actual valuation at its listing, Zoom's ownership percentage, and subsequent transaction arrangements.

However, this offers Zoom various possibilities, such as investing in technical collaboration, strengthening AI capabilities, or opportunistically monetizing the stake after the lock-up period to generate extra returns for shareholders. Once implemented, these potential actions are expected to provide a short-term positive catalyst for the stock price.

Zoom and Anthropic's AI Synergy Remains a Long-Term Highlight

Beyond valuation, the commercial relationship between Zoom and Anthropic is equally noteworthy.

Anthropic's large model, Claude, has been integrated into tools like Zoom AI Companion for meeting summaries, task follow-ups, and enterprise workflow automation.

Zoom is simultaneously a shareholder, customer, and distribution partner of Anthropic. Synergizing these three roles could yield sustained compounding returns. Currently, Claude-driven AI features are in active use among Zoom's enterprise customers, with monthly active paid users of AI Companion up 184% year-over-year, indicating that some enterprise users are paying for AI features.

However, this will not materialize in the short term. The commercialization of AI features takes time, and whether it can enhance enterprise customers' willingness to pay will be the key test of this synergistic value.

Initial signs have already emerged. According to Zoom's Q1 FY2027 financial results, monthly active paid users of AI Companion grew 184% year-over-year, with the retention rate rebounding to 99% from 98% in the previous quarter.

However, not everyone is bullish. A Seeking Alpha analyst noted in an early June report that the upside from this investment gain has been partially priced into Zoom's current share price, and Zoom's seat-based business model still faces challenges from AI disruption and intensifying competition, prompting a rating downgrade to "Neutral".

In addition, lock-up periods and dilution are risks that must be considered. Zoom will face a 6- to 12-month lock-up period following Anthropic's public listing, while subsequent fundraising and new share issuances during the IPO could further dilute its stake. These factors mean there is still uncertainty regarding how much of this potential gain will ultimately be realized.

Summary

Anthropic's IPO is not only a capital event, but also a window to reexamine Zoom. In the short term, news of the IPO is expected to enhance market recognition of Zoom's venture investment assets, driving its stock price higher; over the medium to long term, AI synergies and potential monetization returns provide additional support for its valuation.

For investors seeking investment opportunities in the AI application layer, Zoom may be an indirect target that cannot be ignored.