Rivian's R2 Is Finally in Driveways. Here's The Number That Decides Whether The Stock Doubles

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) launched its R2 SUV in the U.S. on June 9. The premium EV maker expects the new vehicle, which costs less than its R1T pickup and R1S SUV, to expand its addressable market and widen its moat against Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). But how many R2 SUVs does Rivian need to sell to double its stock price over the next 12 months?

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How many R2 SUVs does Rivian plan to sell in 2026?

In 2025, Rivian's vehicle deliveries declined 18% to 42,247 units as it struggled with macro, supply chain, and competitive headwinds. But in 2026, it expects its deliveries to soar to 65,000-67,000 vehicles as it overcomes those challenges and ramps up its R2 deliveries.

It expects the R2 to account for 20,000-25,000 of those vehicles. A higher mix of R2 SUVs relative to the R1 would also boost its gross margins, since they cost less to manufacture.

Could hitting that target cause Rivian's stock to double?

If it hits that target, analysts expect Rivian's revenue to surge 38% to $7.5 billion in 2026. That's an impressive growth rate for a stock that trades at just three times this year's sales. Considering that Tesla trades at 12 times this year's sales, it's certainly possible for Rivian's stock -- which has dropped nearly 80% from its IPO price -- to double if its R2 sales soar.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.