10-Year Yield Falls and Bitcoin Bounces Back: Correlation or Coincidence?

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded about 3% from a sub-$80,000 low Thursday as the 10-year yield fell 13 basis points. Traders now ask whether lower Treasury yields lifted Bitcoin or both simply moved together.

The rebound began hours before Treasury ran a scheduled bond buyback, a program it calls liquidity support. Bitcoin was back above $82,000 by noon in New York, CoinGecko data shows.

Has Bitcoin Been Tracking the 10-Year Yield?

The 10-year yield fell to a low of 5.06% early Thursday, down 0.13 percentage points.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), a wholesale-price gauge, rose 1.3% in September. That was the biggest monthly gain since March 2022, CNBC reported.

Investors sold technology shares for the safety of bonds. US chip stocks had lost $1.64 trillion over six sessions.

Wednesday, in contrast, ran the other way. The 10-year hit 5.33% after the September inflation report, and Bitcoin fell about 2% by mid-afternoon.

Bitcoin then touched a 24-hour low of $79,806 on Thursday, hours after yields began falling. That matches the large spot bid near $80,000.

Did the Buyback Move Bitcoin Before, or Only Once?

Treasury said on August 19 it would at least double its long-bond buyback size, and yields fell. Bitcoin’s price rose about 7% that day.

Treasury typically runs each operation from 1:40 to 2:00 p.m. ET, its schedule shows.

Six hours after the September 10 operation, Bitcoin was 1% lower, per CoinGecko. However, it was 0.4% higher after September 24 and 1.3% higher after October 8.

Thursday’s operation accepted $6 billion after Bitcoin had already recovered.

Three episodes cannot separate yields from the dollar, tech flows or liquidity. The next tests are the October 27 buyback and Treasury’s refunding on November 4.