XRP Price Prediction: Rising Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on XRP, Risking Another Plunge of Over 20%

TradingKey - Rate hike expectations weigh on the crypto market as XRP tests key support at $1.3; a breakdown could trigger a 23% decline.

On September 11, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the crypto market experienced a broad decline. Ripple (XRP), the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, also moved lower, dropping around 3% today to approach the key $1.3 level again, currently trading at $1.34.

Yesterday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August rose to 5.4% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.3%. Coupled with high-level volatility in energy and crude oil prices, this heightened market awareness of rising risks of secondary inflation. Following the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September indicated by CME FedWatch jumped above 70%, exacerbating market concerns that borrowing costs will remain high for an extended period or tighten further.

If the Fed decides to hike interest rates at its policy meeting next week (September 15–16), it will drive up US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, triggering outflows from high-risk assets such as US tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. XRP has also declined under the weight of this macro risk-off sentiment.

Although the latest PPI data supports a Fed rate hike, such a decision is not guaranteed. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released today is also a key indicator for the Fed's decision. If CPI also comes in higher than expected, it will further solidify rate hike expectations, potentially triggering a new wave of decline in XRP. Conversely, if CPI shows cooling, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike will decrease, allowing XRP to stage at least a short-term rebound ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision.

From a technical analysis perspective, if XRP continues to fall and loses its recent defensive line at the $1.3 mark, it will fully open up downside potential, followed by a sharp sell-off targeting the psychological round number of $1, representing approximately a 23% drop from current levels. If rate hike expectations cool, XRP is expected to rebound and strengthen, challenging the August high of $1.7 again. The chart shows that XRP is approaching the apex of a descending triangle, suggesting bears hold the upper hand and a market shift could occur at any time.

XRP price chart, Source: TradingView