Australian Dollar crumbles as job losses shatter RBA rate hike hopes

• Australia sheds 39.3K jobs as unemployment rises to 4.72%.
• November RBA hike odds tumble to 15%, with December at 43%.
• Hot US PPI contrasts with Australia's weakening labor market.

The Aussie Dollar collapsed against the US Dollar, and most G7 currencies after a dismal jobs report in Australia cemented the case that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not hike rates this year or in 2027, with money markets pricing in no rate hikes.

AUD/USD faces heavy selling pressure as deteriorating employment data undermines Australia's tightening outlook

Australia’s September jobs report showed the economy shed 39.3K jobs, which obviously pushed the Unemployment Rate higher, from 4.6% to 4.72%, exceeding the RBA’s 4.5% projection towards the end of the year.

The report reduced the probability of an RBA rate hike, even as the RBA has increased rates three times this year and left the door open for further tightening. Nonetheless, the jobs report trimmed the chances of a RBA rate hike in November from around 26% to 15% and of a December meeting from 62% to 43%.

In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 6.3% YoY above forecasts of 5.3%. Core PPI also exceeded estimates, clearing the 5% YoY threshold up from 4.8%. At the same time, Retail Sales, although they cooled, came in better than expected, while jobless claims underscored the strength of the labour market, with Initial Jobless Claims at 199K, below forecasts of 200K.

Given the backdrop, one should’ve expected higher US yields and further US Dollar strength. However, it seems that Wednesday’s volatility dried up on Thursday, as traders booked profits, ahead of the weekend.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack struck a hawkish tone, saying businesses are facing significant input-cost pressures and that “financial conditions do not appear restrictive.”

UP next, the Aussie’s economic schedule is absent. For the US, traders will digest Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the IMF’s annual meeting.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6918, retaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds well below the triple simple moving average cluster around 0.7083 and a series of rising trend-line barriers between 0.7081 and 0.7430. The latest 14-period Relative Strength Index near 33 hints at lingering downside momentum, with price pressing just above the short-term ascending support line at 0.6915 while the broader structure remains capped by overhead trend and horizontal resistance levels.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the upward support trend line turned barrier near 0.7081, followed closely by the grouped triple simple moving average around 0.7083 and the intermediate rising trend-line cap at 0.7430, while a more distant horizontal resistance sits at 0.7198 ahead of higher structural ceilings toward 0.8882 and 0.9813. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the ascending trend line at 0.6915, with the prior downtrend break level at 0.6361 emerging as the next significant demand zone should selling pressure extend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)