Australian Dollar holds near 0.7060 as eyes shift to RBA’s Bullock

• AUD/USD stays flat as softer US PPI weighs on Dollar.
• Fed September hold odds rise after inflation and claims data.
• RBA’s Kent warns upside inflation risks could require hikes.

The Aussie Dollar holds steady at around 0.7061 after US inflation data weighed on the Greenback, which recovered some ground to finish Thursday’s session almost flat. The AUD/USD registers modest losses of 0.01%

AUD/USD steadies as softer US data clashes with hawkish RBA guidance

Data from the US showed that PPI was below estimates and improved compared with June’s print. Core PPI also ticked lower, aligned with the forecast. At the same time, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 8 edged up from 200K to 209K, above forecasts but close to the 4-week average, an indication that the labour market is solid.

This prompted a repricing for the future of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Now, traders expect a rate increase towards the end of 2026, while for the September meeting, probabilities dipped to 30% for a hike and a 70% for a hold.

FOMC members Austan Goolsbee and Thomas Barkin cheered the data, but not Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, who said the Fed should raise rates to restrain growth and inflation.

In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent stated that inflation risks are to the upside and that, if realised, rates would need to rise again.

Ahead, the Aussie economic docket will feature a speech from Governor Michelle Bullock. On Friday, the US schedule will feature July Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7062, holding a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the latest simple moving average cluster around 0.6990 and the short-term rising trend-line support near 0.6955. The broader uptrend off the 0.6830s zone is still in play, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 59 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting room for further gains as long as the pair is supported on dips.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the upward trend-line projection around 0.7277, followed closely by another rising structural barrier near 0.7297; a sustained break above this cluster would expose higher trend resistance towards 0.8385 and 0.9080. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the rising line near 0.6955, with the latest simple moving averages clustered around 0.6990 providing additional underlying demand, while a deeper slide would look towards the former bearish trend-line break region around 0.6403 as a more distant structural floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)