The US debt ceiling is “on the warning track”, says Bessent

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers Tuesday that a fresh estimate of when the United States will run out of cash to pay its bills is “forthcoming,” adding that the debt ceiling is already “on the warning track.”

He explained that the Treasury is still counting the flood of annual tax payments that arrived around the April 15 filing deadline. Those receipts will shape the so-called X-date—the day the government runs out of cash and extraordinary accounting moves to keep paying its bills.

On Capitol Hill, that deadline is more than a bookkeeping entry. Republican leaders have tied their sweeping bill covering tax cuts, border measures, and energy policy to a debt-limit increase, planning to push it through the House on GOP votes alone before the X-date arrives. 

Bessent had pledged to update Congress during the first half of May. Appearing before a House Appropriations subcommittee on Tuesday, he declined to give a hard figure but assured lawmakers the forecast would land soon.

“Just as an outfielder running for a fly ball, we are on the warning track,” he said. “And when you’re on the warning track, it means the wall’s not far away.”

The cap on federal debt snapped back to $36.1 trillion on Jan. 2. Since then, the Treasury has used special measures—pausing certain investments and shifting internal funds.

Officials warn that those tactics end once available cash is gone. Bessent said daily balances now swing by tens of billions of dollars, making precision hard, but he stressed that missing payments would shake global credit markets and raise costs for U.S. families. 

Regarding the digital dollar, aka CBDC, the secretary responded, “We believe that digital assets belong in the private sector,” and answered “No, sir,” when pressed on whether he supports a Federal Reserve central bank digital currency.

Bessent asked US investors to look beyond Trump’s criticism

A day earlier, at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, Bessent sought to calm investors. He asked them to look beyond criticism of President Trump’s agenda. He said, “You’ll be glad you did — not only because we have the most productive workforce in the world. But because we will soon have the most favorable tax and regulatory environment as well.”

His pitch came only hours after Mr. Trump ordered new tariffs on foreign film producers, a move that puzzled Hollywood insiders who questioned how such a levy would work. The measure echoes earlier duties on steel, aluminum, and electric vehicles.

Markets have been jittery since last month, when the president imposed tariffs on several trading partners and deepened a fight with China, sending share prices lower. Bond yields swung sharply after each announcement, signaling traders’ rising unease there.

“Our goal with trade policy is to level the playing field for our great American workers and companies,” he said at Milken. He called the broader debate “noisy” but said investors should judge the country by its fundamentals: a vast consumer market, deep capital markets, and what he described as “the most competitive tax code in the industrialized world” once Congress acts.

The trade drama spilled onto social media Sunday night, when Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social that he was ordering agencies “to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% Tariff on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands.” 

On Monday, a White House spokesman said no final decision had been made and officials were still studying options.

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