Will Jensen Huang Still Run Nvidia at the End of 2027? Two Analysts Disagree

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is investigating its own CEO. On Sunday, the board said it was launching an independent investigation after reports that Jensen Huang was targeted by a Chinese spy operation. Nvidia also released a message in which Huang admitted to an affair with Alice Huang, a former executive at Singapore-based chip company Megaspeed. The two Huangs are not related.

U.S. officials suspect Megaspeed helped smuggle restricted Nvidia chips into China. The board says it has confidence in Huang and his team. Huang has said he will cooperate with the review and keep leading the company.

Washington is paying attention, too. Three House committee chairs have asked Huang for a closed-door briefing on Nov. 18, one day after Nvidia reports quarterly earnings.

We asked two Motley Fool analysts a simple question: Will Huang still be Nvidia's CEO at the end of 2027?

No, he'll be gone

By Michael McCoy

Nvidia has no obvious successor, but it had better start looking.

On Sunday, the board opened an independent investigation into reports that Jensen Huang was targeted by Chinese spies. Huang acknowledged a relationship with a former executive at a Singapore chip buyer whom U.S. officials reportedly suspect of spying for Beijing and smuggling AI chips into China.

Infidelity is survivable, but putting our national security at risk is not. Nvidia can't sell its best chips abroad without Washington's permission, and House committee chairs already want a briefing.

Image source: Getty Images.

Huang owns about 3.5% of Nvidia and has no voting majority, so the board can remove him. If investigators find his relationship opened a door for chip smuggling, I think it will.

My view: Jensen Huang will not be Nvidia's CEO by the end of 2027.

Yes, he'll still be there

By Toby Bordelon

I believe that Jensen Huang should not remain as Nvidia's CEO. If I were on the board, I would advocate for, and vote for, his removal. That said, I think he will, in fact, still be CEO by the end of next year. I do not think the board is brave enough to take such drastic action as to remove him, at least not yet.

Nvidia is Huang's company, in spirit if not in fact of majority stock ownership. As I write this, Nvidia stock is down less than 5% the day after the news of the board investigation broke. It's likely, I think, that removing Huang as CEO would do more damage to the stock price than this news has so far, and the board knows this. Heading into the holiday season, just after a dramatic election, I think the board will slow-walk this investigation for as long as they can, hoping other news stories capture the market's attention and this all blows over. They won't act unless they absolutely have to, and my guess is they won't be forced to before the media has moved on to the next catchy story.

If I'm proven wrong, and the board does what I think they should do, then my respect for them will increase. But I don't think that's going to happen.

What history says

Boards have faced this choice before, and they've gone both ways.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) stood by its founder. When Jeff Bezos announced his divorce in January 2019 and tabloids reported his affair, Amazon shares closed at $1,659.42. Investors mostly shrugged. By late 2019, the stock had climbed to about $1,820, and Bezos stayed CEO until 2021.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) went the other way. In June 2018, CEO Brian Krzanich resigned after the company learned of a past consensual relationship with an employee. That relationship violated Intel's non-fraternization policy, which applies to all managers. The stock fell 2.4% that day, even though Intel shares had more than doubled during his five years in charge.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) fired CEO Steve Easterbrook in November 2019 over a consensual relationship with an employee. He had nearly doubled the stock since taking over in 2015. Shares fell about 3% the next day. The story didn't end there, either. The following year, McDonald's accused Easterbrook of lying to the board while negotiating his exit package.

In each case, the stock's first-day move was small. What mattered more was whether the conduct touched the business itself. Neither Krzanich nor Easterbrook was accused of putting company secrets at risk.

That's what makes Nvidia's case different, and it's the heart of the disagreement above. The question isn't the affair. It's whether investigators find that it opened a door to chip smuggling, at a company that needs Washington's permission to sell its best chips abroad.

What to watch

Two dates come next. Nvidia reports earnings on Nov. 17, and the requested House briefing is Nov. 18. Neither will settle the investigation, but both will show how the board and Washington are handling it.

Michael McCoy has positions in Amazon and Nvidia. Toby Bordelon has positions in Amazon and McDonald's. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Intel, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2028 $320 calls on McDonald's and short January 2028 $340 calls on McDonald's. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.