Intel Stock's October Was Its Worst Month Since at Least 1980. History Says What Can Come Next.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) stock closed October at $65.76, down 45% from its $120.23 close at the end of September. Yahoo Finance's daily price data for the company begins in March 1980, and no other month in it was worse. That makes October Intel's worst month since at least 1980.

Most of the loss came in one session. Shares dropped 29% on Oct. 30, the day after Intel's third-quarter results, as management forecast just $0.25 in fourth-quarter non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share -- under half the $0.52 it had just earned.

That said, the stock still ended Oct. 30 up around 78% for 2026. But that left it worth about 53% less than at its high, a $140.94 close on June 22.

How has Intel stock done after its other worst months? The record is mixed.

Of the five next-worst months with a full year of trading since, three left the stock down 12 months later. And I think what Intel's profits did next mattered far more than how far the stock dropped.

Image source: Intel.

Two warnings about Europe

The previous worst was September 2000, when the stock lost 44.5%. On Sept. 21 that year, Intel said its third-quarter revenue would be just 3% to 5% above the second quarter's $8.3 billion, mostly because of softer demand in Europe.

Intel's revenue shrank 21% in 2001 to $26.5 billion, and its diluted earnings per share dropped 87% to $0.19. The stock kept sliding, losing another 37% in the next six months and 51% in the next 12.

June 2002, when shares fell 33.9%, began nearly the same way. On June 6, Intel cut its second-quarter revenue outlook to $6.2 billion to $6.5 billion, again blaming weaker demand in Europe. The stock had dropped another 15% six months later.

But the profit decline was mostly behind Intel by then. Revenue inched up 1% in 2002, and in 2003 it grew 13% to $30.1 billion while net income surged 81% to $5.6 billion. A year after June 2002, the stock had risen 14%.

October 1987 and 2024

October 1987 is the odd one. Intel shares dropped 32.5% that month when the whole market crashed, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) lost 22.6% on Oct. 19 alone.

Intel's own business was booming, with revenue up 51% in 1987 to $1.9 billion, and it turned a profit after a loss in 1986.

Six months after that October, the stock was up 19%. But 12 months later, it was still down 5% -- arguably because shares had almost tripled over the year before the crash.

The two worst months in 2024 also split. The stock sank 31% in April 2024 and was 34% lower a year later, as Intel headed for an $18.8 billion net loss.

In August 2024, the stock tumbled 28% as Intel said it would suspend its dividend and cut its staff by over 15%. But this time, profits were close to a turn. Intel earned $0.42 a share on an adjusted basis in 2025 after losing $0.13 in 2024, and the stock had risen around 10% a year after that August.

Of course, July 2026 (down 35.4%) is too recent to grade. As of Oct. 30, the stock was around 27% under its July close, even after a 34% climb in September.

Which precedent fits today?

Not all of Intel's business is weakening. Its data center and AI segment grew revenue 78% year over year in the third quarter. And Intel still expects fourth-quarter revenue to rise about 13% year over year at the midpoint of its forecast.

But profits are heading down from here, and management doesn't expect the PC weakness driving that to end soon.

"[W]e see the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year," Intel chief financial officer David Zinsner said in the company's third-quarter earnings release.

What's more, the stock's run-up looks more like 1987 or 2000 than 2002. Shares more than tripled in the 12 months before October. Even after the sell-off, they trade at around 36 times 2027 earnings estimates, which could still be a lot to pay if PC sales keep sliding that long.

So, does history make October's plunge a buying opportunity? I don't think so. The losses that were followed by gains a year later came when Intel's profits were about to rebound. This one comes with profits that may keep falling for at least a few more quarters.

I'd want to see where Intel's PC sales bottom before buying shares.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.