Boeing Stock Forecast: BA Breaks $183.86 After 737 Ramp Delay as Sellers Eye $160.35

TradingKey - Boeing (NYSE: BA) fell 10.69% to $168.18 on Tuesday, October 27, after third-quarter results and a slower production timeline. It was the stock's worst day since June 2020, and it set a new 52-week low on more than four times normal volume. Premarket quotes sit slightly lower near $167.64.

The stock is now down about 23% this year and about 34% below its 52-week high of $254.35. The free cash flow beat and a record backlog did not stop the selling, because investors focused on how slowly Boeing can turn those orders into profit.

Q3: Cash Beat, Earnings Missed

Revenue rose 4% to $24.2 billion, above most estimates. Core EPS, which strips out certain pension and retirement costs, was a loss of $0.34, wider than the $0.21 loss expected. The GAAP loss was $0.26 a share, and the net loss narrowed to $116 million from $5.3 billion a year ago, when Boeing took a 777X charge.

Free cash flow, the cash left after operating costs and capital spending, came in at $464 million, above expectations, even after about $700 million in Justice Department payments. The backlog reached a record $745 billion, up from $715 billion, including more than 6,300 commercial jets.

Commercial Losses Doubled Forecasts

Commercial Airplanes revenue fell 3% to $10.7 billion, and the unit lost $697 million, roughly twice what analysts expected, for a negative 6.5% margin. Boeing blamed a less favorable delivery mix, higher projected costs tied to future production rate changes and higher supply chain costs. JPMorgan's Seth Seifman said the margin came in about 280 basis points, or 2.8 percentage points, below forecasts because of cost growth.

Defense did better, with revenue up 15% to $7.9 billion and a 6.2% margin, though that included a $252 million gain on the sale of HRL Laboratories. Global Services revenue grew 4%.

The 737 Ramp Slipped to 2027

The selloff deepened on the call, where Boeing said stabilizing the 737 at 47 jets a month will now take into next year, and the step-up to 52 now starts in the second half of 2027. CEO Kelly Ortberg said it "is taking us longer than we had expected" to show steady performance at that rate, pointing to the wing production system, and Boeing will miss its target of about 500 737 deliveries this year. On the 787, engine supply now sets the pace as Boeing moves toward 10 a month.

The paperwork is done, with the 737-7 receiving amended certification in the third quarter and the 737-10 in October, but the factory still cannot build fast enough.

Cash Targets Push the Payoff Out

Boeing narrowed its 2026 free cash flow guide to about $2 billion and set targets for the first time: about $3 billion in 2027, $6 billion in 2028 and $10 billion in 2029. The 2027 figure assumes 777X certification by midyear. By my calculation, the fourth quarter needs about $2.4 billion to hit the 2026 goal, after negative $359 million through September.

The balance sheet adds pressure, with $20.7 billion in cash and marketable securities against $45.9 billion of debt, though its $10 billion credit line remains undrawn. With revenue still growing, the concern is margins, not demand.

Boeing Technical Analysis: 4-Hour Close Below $160.35 Could Open $149.93

That disappointment shows clearly on the 4-hour chart. BA broke sharply below $183.86, a support level that had held for weeks, and has also dropped below $171.20. It now trades well beneath both moving averages, which track the average price over a set period, so sellers are firmly in control.

RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, has dropped to about 20, deep below the 30 oversold line, so selling looks stretched and a short-term bounce is possible.

BA Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

On the downside, $160.35 is the next support, near the lower edge of the falling channel, two parallel lines that contain a downtrend. A break below it could open $149.93. For buyers, a 4-hour close back above $171.20 would be the first sign of relief and could lead to a retest of $183.86, which is now resistance.

I'm bearish while BA stays below $171.20, though oversold conditions could spark a brief rebound first.

Key Levels

• Last close: $168.18, down 10.69% on October 27
• Support: $160.35, $149.93
• Resistance: $171.20, $183.86, $190.67, $197.77
• RSI: 19.73, deeply oversold
• Bullish trigger: 4-hour close above $171.20
• Bearish trigger: 4-hour close below $160.35

FAQs

Why did Boeing stock fall after earnings?

Boeing fell 10.69% after a wider-than-expected core loss of $0.34 a share, a $697 million commercial loss and a slower 737 ramp, with the move to 52 jets a month pushed to the second half of 2027. Free cash flow of $464 million beat expectations but did not offset the delay.

What is the Boeing stock forecast now?

The bias is bearish below $171.20 on the 4-hour chart. A 4-hour close below $160.35 targets $149.93, while a close above $171.20 could lead to a retest of $183.86.

Bottom Line

Boeing has the backlog and the certifications, but the 737 ramp delay pushes real cash growth into 2028 and beyond. The level that matters is $171.20. In my view, the stock stays under pressure below it, with $160.35 the next test, while a 4-hour close back above $171.20 would open a relief move toward $183.86.