Here's What $5,000 Invested in SpaceX Could Be Worth in 2030

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), otherwise known as SpaceX, was the hottest initial public offering (IPO) of the year, if not the century. However, despite the massive demand for shares at IPO and the initial price jump, SpaceX stock has been a laggard. It trades at $148 today, about 10% higher than the IPO price of $135 and below the first-day opening price of $150. It's down almost 8% since the first-day closing price, when investors who didn't get shares at IPO had the chance to buy shares. However, there are plenty of people who are bullish on this stock. The median Wall Street analyst target price is $217, a 46% increase from today.

Most investors should buy stocks thinking at least a few years out. Here's where SpaceX stock might be in 2030.

Growing fast and coming closer to profits

SpaceX's growth rates weren't particularly impressive leading up to its IPO, but they were much higher in the second quarter, SpaceX's first as a public company. Total revenue increased 92% year over year driven by all of its segments, but particularly xAI, its artificial intelligence (AI) business. Here's the breakdown, including profits and losses:

Data source: SpaceX quarterly reports. Growth is year over year.

xAI is both its fastest-growing business and its biggest loser. However, the total loss was cut by nearly half, from $1 billion last year to $541 million this year, boding well for a profit on the horizon.

Management sees its biggest opportunities in AI as well, even though it's the rocket-launching and Starlink businesses that set it apart from other AI companies. xAI operates the Grok AI model, is building data centers, and is beefing up the business with its recent acquisition of Cursor. It also recently announced several major deals for data center rentals with Alphabet, which will pay $920 million monthly, and Anthropic, which will pay $1.25 billion monthly through 2029. Management sees a $26.5 trillion long-term addressable market for AI.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX in 2030

If SpaceX continues to grow at current rates, the stock should be much higher in 2030. Wall Street expects sales to increase 156% in 2027, which is an accelerated pace.

If SpaceX grows at a 100% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030, that might justify its premium valuation of 68 times trailing-12-month sales. If it maintained that ratio, sales would be $662 billion, which is hard to imagine over the next five years. It's likely that the rate is going to slow down, and if it does, the price-to-sales multiple would as well. So let's go through a reasonable scenario. Suppose SpaceX grows at a CAGR of 75% over the next five years. That would bring sales to about $340 billion. Imagine the price-to-sales ratio at about two-thirds what it is now, so let's say about 46. That would mean a market cap of $15 trillion, which seems highly unlikely.

You'd have to imagine that either the CAGR or multiple or both will slow down. Let's imagine a CAGR of 50% and a price-to-sales ratio of 34, or half today's multiple. That would be $157 billion in revenue, and the market cap would be $5.5 trillion, a 177% increase from today's figure. If you'd invest $5,000 today, according to this formula, you'd have $13,850.

These are still optimistic numbers because there are many risks for the business, especially with xAI. There's a real chance that AI spend will slow down, impacting suppliers like xAI, and send SpaceX stock down.

There's certainly a chance the stock does reward investors coming up, as in the above scenario, but I'm not ready to say it's time to buy. This isn't the kind of risk I would want to take with my money, and that's how I'd recommend any investor think about the stock.

Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.