Tesla Stock Forecast: Delivery Beat Meets Margin Test as TSLA Defends $355 Before Q3 Earnings

TradingKey - On Thursday, October 15, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares fell 1.29% to finish the day at $362.44, while the S&P 500 rose 0.33% on the day. Shares dipped as low as $355.23 during the day. After the close, The Wall Street Journal reported that Mike Snyder, Tesla’s head of energy, was leaving the company. In the evening, Tesla revealed its new version of the Roadster.

My main point is simple. I think volume is no longer Tesla’s biggest problem. I think the main problem is profitability. Q3 deliveries beat estimates for the second consecutive quarter, but the earnings report on October 21 will show if that delivered volume results in profits and cash flow with capital expenditures for the year expected to exceed $25 billion.

Q3 Deliveries Beat, but Inventory Did the Heavy Lifting

In Q3, Tesla reported producing and delivering 464,391 and 486,532 vehicles, respectively. The company bested the company-compiled analyst consensus of 461,974 by 5.3%. Deliveries increased by 1.3% from Q2, but decreased by 2.1% from the record Q3 2025 deliveries, which benefited from the then-pending expiration of the U.S. EV tax credit.

What catches my attention is the gap. Deliveries outpaced production by approximately 22,000 units, the second straight quarter of inventory drawdown. That supports Q3 cash flow, but it's not proof of structurally stronger demand.

Why Q2 Earnings Quality Still Hangs Over the Stock

Q2 revenues rose 26% to a record $28.24 billion. However, GAAP EPS of $0.32 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 fell far short of estimates. Operating income fell 57% to $398 million, resulting in an operating margin of 1.4%.

There were two main items that distorted the headline. The first was GAAP net income, which included an unrealized $1.0 billion gain on Tesla's SpaceX investment. The second was a dramatic decrease in regulatory credit revenue, falling from $439 million to $146 million. Excluding regulatory credits, automotive gross margin was 16.3%. I would focus on whether that figure is stable in the long run without the one-time assistance.

Capex Above $25 Billion Puts Free Cash Flow in Focus

Negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion in Q2 was mainly driven by $5.79 billion in capex. The company expects capex to exceed $25 billion to fund several projects including Cybercabs, Optimus, AI chips, and other facilities. This is an increase from the previous expectations of more than $20 billion, announced in January 2026.

The largest risk to the stock remains valuation. The market is rewarding the company for future revenues generated by AI while the near-term revenues shrink.

Energy Storage Misses as Leadership Changes

Tesla installed 13.7 GWh of storage this quarter compared to 12.5 GWh in Q3 2025 and 15.9 GWh consensus. The unit may also lose its lead. Mike Snyder, the vice president of energy and charging, may be departing, according to reports. This will definitely be something to watch.

Robotaxi Growth Faces Mounting Regulatory Pressure

While Autonomy is the valuation anchor, the more than 300 Cybercabs in operation in Austin are gaining regulatory scrutiny. On October 9, NHTSA opened a Defect Petition Review to look into approximately 1,000 of Tesla’s robotaxi Model Y and Cybercab vehicles for school zone speed limit violations. There have been no defects found by NHTSA. Tesla has until October 30 to respond to the self-certification of Cybercabs, and the approval of FSD (Supervised) in the EU is still up in the air.

Roadster and SpaceX Talk Move Sentiment, Not Earnings

Tesla showcased its new Roadster at the SpaceX testing facility in Texas, with Musk adding that production will start in 2028. This info will likely get a headline but won’t impact earnings.

SpaceX is more of an X-factor. Barclays analysts wrote that Musk may be looking to merge Tesla and SpaceX as early as this fall, but there has been no official announcement. In addition, shareholders would have to approve the deal.

What to Watch in Tesla's October 21 Earnings

The Zacks consensus is looking for EPS of $0.44, with revenue expected to come in at $27.8 billion, after the market close. The automotive margin excluding credits and free cash flow will be important. I’ll also listen for SpaceX mentions as well as updates on robotaxi.

Tesla Technical Analysis: TSLA Defends $355 Trendline as Momentum Cools

TSLA ended the day at $362.44 after trading as low as $355.23. My daily chart shows price is still uptrending from the late July low at around $297. The long lower wick shows buyers protecting the trendline almost precisely. TSLA is still trading under its near-term moving averages at $365.79 and $370.71.

Tesla Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

This keeps the overall trendline in an uptrend but still fragile. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 46.45, under the 50 midline and the signal line at 52.63. The RSI is reflective of the overall trend of price action which is still in an uptrend but shows a recent pullback.

Immediate resistance is at $368.84 and is also where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is located. Next resistance is located at $384.59, then $399.98, and $412.90, near the 100% Fib. The 50% Fib and trendline support are at $355.04. A breakdown of this area support exposes $341.51 then $324.67. Overall I am neutral to slightly bullish as long as $355 holds.

Key Levels

Last Trade: $362.44 (-1.29% on October 15)

Support: $355.04, $341.51, $324.67

Resistance: $368.84, $384.59, $399.98, $412.90

RSI: 46.45 below 52.63 signal line

Bullish Trigger: Close above $368.84

Bearish Trigger: Close below $355.04

FAQs

Did Tesla beat Q3 2026 delivery expectations?

Yes. Tesla reported 486,532 deliveries, topping the 461,974 consensus. About 22,000 deliveries came from inventory. We'll find out more on October 21.

What is the Tesla stock forecast ahead of earnings?

Neutral bias with a slight bullish bias is currently in play while $355 is support. Bulls want a close above $368.84 to press toward $384.59, while a close below $355 targets $341.51.

Bottom Line

Tesla's volume story has a better chance at improving quicker than the earnings story. An improvement in margins could lead to a rebound toward $384.59. The risks are deeper negative cash flow, a larger cash burn, and greater scrutiny over the robotaxi probes. A close above $368.84 improves my outlook, and a close below $355 invalidates my bullish thesis.