The Anthropic IPO Is Coming. You May Already Own a Piece of the Stock

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • Amazon and Alphabet own stakes in Anthropic, which is planning to go public at a $2 trillion market value.

  • But Anthropic needs to prove it can generate positive cash flow.

  • Investing in Amazon and Alphabet isn't just about their stakes in Anthropic, although it is nice to have.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Alphabet ›

The Anthropic initial public offering (IPO) is imminent. In early October, investors expected the artificial-intelligence (AI) company to file an S-1 prospectus, which will detail Anthropic's financial performance, business strategy, and ownership structure ahead of its debut, probably a few weeks later. Most of the time, large companies like to IPO before the holiday season, so expect Anthropic to go public in October or early November.

Individual investors cannot directly buy Anthropic shares ahead of the proposed IPO. However, you may already have a stake in Anthropic going into the IPO, you just didn't know it. Here's how.

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Big tech investments

To fund its gigantic capital investments in training and running AI systems, Anthropic has secured funding and built major partnerships with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). In return for funding, Anthropic has committed to spending tens of billions on Alphabet's Google Cloud and Amazon's Amazon Web Services (AWS).

The public doesn't have exact figures on how much Amazon and Alphabet own of Anthropic ahead of its IPO, but given how much they have invested in the business, their stakes could be large. Analysts estimate a range of 15%-20% ownership for Amazon and 10%-15% for Alphabet, but we will not know for sure until the S-1 is filed.

Even taking the low end of these ranges, these stakes could be worth significant amounts heading into the IPO. Anthropic is planning to go public at an estimated $2 trillion valuation. At that level, a 15% stake (for Amazon) would be worth $300 billion, and a 10% stake (for Alphabet) would be worth $200 billion. It is not a huge share of either technology company's trillion-dollar market cap, but it could drive nice value creation in the years ahead.

A bunch of red lines going around the globe.

Image source: Getty Images.

Rapid growth, but likely large losses

The long-term question for investors is whether Anthropic will be worth $2 trillion, or more, in the future.

Today, the company reports annualized revenue of $65 billion, growing at a substantial clip. By October, this figure could jump to $100 billion, up from just $9 billion at the end of 2025.

This is one of the fastest-growing large companies in history, which could help it justify this lofty starting valuation. Where investors may get tripped up is cash burn. Anthropic is investing heavily upfront to pursue cutting-edge AI models and inference (when customers use AI models), which likely has it burning a ton of cash.

After raising an estimated $100 billion in its IPO, Anthropic will have plenty of cash to keep investing in growth, but it will eventually have to turn a profit.

Should you buy these stocks for exposure to Anthropic?

I don't know whether an investor should buy Amazon or Alphabet stock solely for their stakes in Anthropic, but it can be part of an overall AI thesis for these two hyperscalers.

The true value in these stocks will be created by the cash Anthropic -- along with other AI software providers -- spends on Google Cloud and AWS. Last quarter, AWS revenue rose 37% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, with a 39% profit margin. Google Cloud revenue increased 82% to $24.8 billion, with a 35% profit margin.

These are phenomenally profitable businesses on an immense scale and are now growing rapidly due to the onset of the AI revolution. Along with their stakes in Anthropic, you can make a bet on Amazon and Alphabet stocks as rock-solid bets if you want exposure to AI in 2026 and beyond.

Plus, you have diversification from these investments just from these two holdings. Alphabet also has its legacy Google Search business, YouTube, Google Workspace subscriptions, and other revenue driving its business. Amazon has its enormous global e-commerce operations. This can help balance out returns and financial performance if the AI boom eventually busts.

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Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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